石油干线管道长期运行后管件力学试验结果的统计分析

D. Neganov, S. V. Skorodumov, N. Nikitin
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引用次数: 2

摘要

进行任何科学研究都包括获取、处理和分析从一次或一系列实验中获得的数据的过程。在科学存在的漫长时期里,人们创造了许多方法来获得实验数据。作为研究材料性能的一部分,标准方法应用于拉伸、冲击韧性和硬度试验以及疲劳试验。这个测试列表可以作为一个基础,用来确定给定材料在工作期间能够承受的载荷的水平和特征。本文论述了用标准(基本)方法对石油干线和成品油管道管材试验结果的处理方法。目前,实验设备的自动化程度已经相当高。然而,在准备样品和建立实验时,仍然有一些人为的参与,这可能导致在执行测试时发生错误(人为因素)。本文介绍了一些方法,这些方法可以对实验数据的误差和可靠性进行初步处理和验证,并对所得结果的假设和分布规律进行验证。根据对管材力学性能变化的评价,还提出了确定待测样品的最小数量的方法。可以采用几种方法来解决识别所分析参数之间的联系和关系的任务。第一种方法是确定的,需要长期研究。当考虑到大量的研究因素时,它也相当昂贵,并且涉及相当复杂的实验。第二种方法是概率和统计方法,它允许在一系列测量(相关分析)和线性(对回归)之间建立隐式依赖关系,并在被检查的参数之间揭示非线性依赖关系(多元回归)。本文应用统计方法对石油干线和成品油管道管材的力学试验数据进行了分析。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Statistical analysis of mechanical test results for samples of pipes from trunk oil pipelines after long-term operation
CONDUCTING ANY SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH includes the process of acquiring, processing, and analysing data which are obtained as a result of one or a series of experiments.   Over the prolonged period for which science has existed, a multitude of methods have been created for obtaining experimental data. As part of studying the properties of materials, standard methods are applied for tensile, impact toughness, and hardness tests, as well as fatigue tests. This list of tests can be taken as a base which is used to establish the level and character of loads the given material is capable to sustain during operation. This paper examines approaches to processing experiment results which are obtained using standard (basic) methods when testing pipe steels for trunk oil and oil product pipelines.   At the present time, the degree of automation in experimental equipment is fairly high. However, there is still some human participation when preparing samples and setting-up the experiments, which may lead to errors occurring when performing the tests (the human factor). This article presents some approaches which make it possible to perform initial processing and verification of experimental data for errors and reliability, and against hypotheses and distribution laws for the results obtained. Methods are also suggested for determining the minimum quantity of samples to be tested, based on evaluation of the mechanical property variations in pipe steels.   Several approaches may be applied to solve the task of identifying links and relationships between the analysed parameters. The first approach is deterministic and requires long-term study. When one takes into account the considerable number of factors being studied, it is also fairly expensive and involves rather complicated experiments. The second approach is probabilistic and statistical, which allows implicit dependences to be established between series of measurements (correlation analysis) and linear (pair regression) and non-linear dependences (multiple regression) to be revealed between the parameters being examined. This study applies the statistical approach to analysing data from mechanical tests of pipe steels in trunk oil and oil product pipelines.
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