Study on the Nonlinear Effect of Manufacturing Agglomeration by Carbon Emissions : Application of Semi-parametric Spatial Autoregressive Model

Purpose : This study examined the non-linear effect of manufacturing clusters on carbon emissions using the semi-parametric spatial autoregressive model. Research design, data and methodology : This study calculated the manufacturing specialization and diversification agglomeration index according to the region in Korea for 17 regions and 25 manufacturing fields in Korea from 2013 to 2019. Considering the impact of manufacturing agglomeration on carbon emissions, the non-linear effect of manufacturing agglomeration on carbon emissions was examined using a semi-parametric model for the effect of manufacturing agglomeration on carbon emissions. In addition, considering the spatial fluidity of carbon emissions and policy imitation of neighboring regions, this study constructed a semi-parametric spatial autoregressive model considering the spatial interactions between individuals. Results : An analysis of the carbon emission reduction effect according to the manufacturing cluster type showed that, the effect of a specialized cluster on carbon emission was an N-shaped structure. In the early stages of specialization integration, the action of promoting carbon emission is weakened as the level of integration increases and gradually suppresses carbon emission. The effect of the diversification of the manufacturing industry on carbon emissions was found to be a distinct inverted U-shaped structure. In the early stages of diversification and integration, carbon emissions increased strongly, and carbon emissions were gradually suppressed as the level of integration increased, Diversification agglomeration in the manufacturing industry had a greater effect on suppressing carbon emissions than specialization agglomeration. Conclusions : Attention should be paid to the relationship between the expansion of production scale and carbon emission in large and relatively mature manufacturing specialization clusters. The expansion of the production scale mat weaken the eco friendly effect of technological progress. In the early stages of diversification and agglomeration in the manufacturing industry, attention should be paid to improving resource use efficiency and reducing carbon emissions. While diversifying the agglomeration areas, it is necessary to promote the rational use of existing resources by improving public infrastructure within the industrial complex. Comprehensively, policies should be set to maintain the functions of various related industries, enhance the energy efficiency, and lower carbon intensity through process improvement.