是什么驱动着渴望拥有核武器的国家?伊朗和朝鲜的案例

Muhammad Erza Pradana
{"title":"是什么驱动着渴望拥有核武器的国家?伊朗和朝鲜的案例","authors":"Muhammad Erza Pradana","doi":"10.26593/sentris.v4i1.6425.61-72","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Why do states want to acquire nuclear weapons? In other words, what drives nuclear-aspiring states? This is the basic question that the author seeks to address in this research. To do so, this research will focus on two standout cases: Iran and North Korea. By employing structural realism as a tool of analysis, the author argues that it is the structure of the international system that drives both Iran and North Korea to acquire nuclear weapons of their own. Specifically, it is the highly unequal distribution of power both regionally and globally that encourages both states to go nuclear. At the global level, both Iran and North Korea found themselves in hostilities with a much more powerful state, the United States. The hostilities and the fact that the United States is way more powerful increase the fear of being attacked in both countries. Similarly, at the regional level, both states face neighbors that are relatively more powerful and have alliances with the United States. Thus, this imbalance of power and the fear it created in both Iran and North Korea give them great incentive to go nuclear, as nuclear weapons would act as a deterrent against any possible aggression. This research is qualitative and based on the literature study data collection method.\nKeywords: Nuclear proliferation; national security; distribution of capabilities; structural realism\nREFERENCES\n \nAbulof, Uriel. 2014. \"Revisiting Iran’s nuclear rationales.\" International Politics 51(3), 404-415. Albright, David, and Andrea Stricker. 2010. \"Iran’s Nuclear Program.\" In The Iran Primer: Power, Politics, and US Policy, edited by Robin Wright, 77-81. Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Pres. \nBowen, W.Q., and J. Brewer. 2011. \"Iran’s nuclear challenge: Nine years and counting.\" International Affairs 87(4): 923–943. \nChubin, S. 2007. \"Iran: Domestic politics and nuclear choices.\" In Strategic Asia 2007–08: Domestic Political Change and Grand Strategy, edited by A.J. Tellis, M. Wills and N. Bisley, 301–340. Washington DC: National Bureau of Asian Research. \nCronin, Patrick M. 2008. \"The Trouble with North Korea.\" In Double Trouble: Iran and North Korea as Challenges to International Security, edited by Patrick M. Cronin, 79-89. Wesport: Praeger Security International \nBuszynski, Leszek. 2021. \"North Korea's Nuclear Diplomacy.\" In Routledge Handbook of Contemporary North Korea, edited by Adrian Buzo, -170. Oxon: Routledge. \nDonnelly, Jack. 2005. \"Realism.\" In Theories of International Relations, edited by Scott Burchill, Andrew Linklater, Richard Devetak, Jack Donnelly, Christian Reus-Smit Matthew Paterson and Jacqui True, 29-54. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. \nGreitens, Sheena Chestnut. 2020. \"Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.\" In The Globalization of World Politics: An Introduction to International Relations, by John Baylis, Steve Smith and Patricia Owens, 465-480. Oxford: Oxford University. \nHobbs, Christopher, and Matthew Moran. 2014. Exploring Regional Responses to a Nuclear Iran. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. \nIkenberry, G. John, Michael Mastanduno, and William C. Wohlforth. 2011. \"Introduction: unipolarity, state, and systemic consequenses.\" In International relations theory and the consequences of unipolarity, edited by G. John Ikenberry, Michael Mastanduno and William C. Wohlforth, 1-32. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. \nJackson, Robert, and Georg Sørensen. 2013. Introduction to International Relations: Theories and Approaches. Oxford: Oxford University Press. \nJackson, Van. 2018. On the Brink: Trump, Kim, and the Threat of Nuclear War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. \nJørgensen, Knud Erik. 2018. International Relations Theory: A New Introduction. London: Palgrave.\nKaufman, Joyce P. 2021. A Concise History of U.S. Foreign Policy. Lanham, Maryland: Rowman & Littlefield \nKrauthammer, Charles. 1990. \"The Unipolar Moment.\" Foreign Affairs 70(1), 23-33. Mærli, Morten Bremer, and Sverre Lodgaard. 2007. \"Introduction.\" In Nuclear Proliferation and International Security, edited by Morten Bremer Mærli and Sverre Lodgaard, 1-5. Oxon: Routledge. \nMearsheimer, John J. 2018. The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities. New Haven: Yale University Press. \n—. 2001. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: WW Norton & Company. Mearsheimer, John J., and Stephen M. Walt. 2007. The Israel Lobby and US Foreign Policy. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux. \nPollack, Jonathan D. 2011. No Exit: North Korea, Nuclear Weapons and International Security. New York: Routledge. \nPopoola, Michael Akin, Deborah Ebunoluwa Oluwadara, and Abiodun A. Adesegun. 2019. \"North Korea Nucler Proliferation in the Context of the Realist Theory: A Review.\" European Journal of Social Sciences 58(1), 75-82. \nPorter, Patrick. 2015. The Global Village Myth: Distance, War and the Limits of Power. Washington, D.C.: Georgetown University Press. \nSharma, Anu. 2022. Through the Looking Glass: Iran and Its Foreign Relations. New York: Routledge \nSmith, Shane. 2021. \"Nuclear Weapons and North Korean Foreign Policy.\" In Routledge Handbook of Contemporary North Korea, edited by Adrian Buzo, 141-154. Oxon: Routledge. Tagma, Halit M. E. 2020. \"Realism and Iran’s Nuclear Program.\" In Understanding and Explaining the Iranian Nuclear 'Crisis', by Halit M. E. Tagma and Paul E. Lenze Jr., 65-103. Lanham: Lexington Books. \nTagma, Halit M.E, and Paul E. Lenze Jr. Understanding and Explaining the Iranian Nuclear 'Crisis'. Lanham: Lexington Books, 2020. \nTaylor, Steven J., Robert Bogdan, and Marjorie L. DeVault. 2016. Introduction to Qualitative Research Methods: A Guidebook and Resource. New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Thomas, Garth. 2017. \"\nRealism And Its Impact To The North Korean, South Korean, And Chinese Nuclear Programs (.\" Master's Thesis. Baltimore, Maryland: Johns Hopkins University, August. Accessed June 27, 2022. https://jscholarship.library.jhu.edu/bitstream/handle/1774.2/60434/THOMAS-THESIS 2017.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y. \nViotti, Paul R., and Mark V. Kauppi. 2012. International Relations Theory. Boston: Longman. Vromen, Ariadne. 2010. \"Debating Methods: Rediscovering Qualitative Approaches.\" In Theory and Methods in Political Science, edited by David Marsh and Gerry Stoker, 249-266. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. \nWaltz, Kenneth N. 1979. Theory of International Politics. Reading: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Inc. \nWaltz, Kenneth. 2000. \"Structural Realism after the Cold War .\" International Security 25(1), pp. 5– 41. \nYonhap News Agency. 2018. N. Korea will not give up nuclear weapons: Mearsheimer . March 20. Accessed May 18, 2023. https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20180320010200315.","PeriodicalId":263620,"journal":{"name":"Jurnal Sentris","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"What Drives Nuclear-Aspiring States? 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The hostilities and the fact that the United States is way more powerful increase the fear of being attacked in both countries. Similarly, at the regional level, both states face neighbors that are relatively more powerful and have alliances with the United States. Thus, this imbalance of power and the fear it created in both Iran and North Korea give them great incentive to go nuclear, as nuclear weapons would act as a deterrent against any possible aggression. This research is qualitative and based on the literature study data collection method.\\nKeywords: Nuclear proliferation; national security; distribution of capabilities; structural realism\\nREFERENCES\\n \\nAbulof, Uriel. 2014. \\\"Revisiting Iran’s nuclear rationales.\\\" International Politics 51(3), 404-415. Albright, David, and Andrea Stricker. 2010. \\\"Iran’s Nuclear Program.\\\" In The Iran Primer: Power, Politics, and US Policy, edited by Robin Wright, 77-81. Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Pres. \\nBowen, W.Q., and J. Brewer. 2011. \\\"Iran’s nuclear challenge: Nine years and counting.\\\" International Affairs 87(4): 923–943. \\nChubin, S. 2007. \\\"Iran: Domestic politics and nuclear choices.\\\" In Strategic Asia 2007–08: Domestic Political Change and Grand Strategy, edited by A.J. Tellis, M. Wills and N. Bisley, 301–340. Washington DC: National Bureau of Asian Research. \\nCronin, Patrick M. 2008. \\\"The Trouble with North Korea.\\\" In Double Trouble: Iran and North Korea as Challenges to International Security, edited by Patrick M. Cronin, 79-89. Wesport: Praeger Security International \\nBuszynski, Leszek. 2021. \\\"North Korea's Nuclear Diplomacy.\\\" In Routledge Handbook of Contemporary North Korea, edited by Adrian Buzo, -170. Oxon: Routledge. \\nDonnelly, Jack. 2005. \\\"Realism.\\\" In Theories of International Relations, edited by Scott Burchill, Andrew Linklater, Richard Devetak, Jack Donnelly, Christian Reus-Smit Matthew Paterson and Jacqui True, 29-54. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. \\nGreitens, Sheena Chestnut. 2020. \\\"Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.\\\" In The Globalization of World Politics: An Introduction to International Relations, by John Baylis, Steve Smith and Patricia Owens, 465-480. Oxford: Oxford University. \\nHobbs, Christopher, and Matthew Moran. 2014. Exploring Regional Responses to a Nuclear Iran. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. \\nIkenberry, G. John, Michael Mastanduno, and William C. Wohlforth. 2011. \\\"Introduction: unipolarity, state, and systemic consequenses.\\\" In International relations theory and the consequences of unipolarity, edited by G. John Ikenberry, Michael Mastanduno and William C. Wohlforth, 1-32. 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引用次数: 0

摘要

纽约:Routledge Smith, Shane. 2021。“核武器与朝鲜外交政策”。《当代朝鲜劳特利奇手册》,阿德里安·布佐编辑,第141-154页。奥克:劳特利奇。郝立文。2020。“现实主义和伊朗核计划。”《理解和解释伊朗核“危机”》,哈利特·m·e·塔格马和小保罗·e·伦兹著,65-103页。兰哈姆:列克星敦书店。Tagma, Halit m.e.和Paul E. Lenze Jr.《理解和解释伊朗核危机》。兰哈姆:列克星敦出版社,2020年。泰勒,史蒂文·J,罗伯特·波格丹,玛乔丽·l·德沃。2016. 定性研究方法导论:一本指南和资源。新泽西州:约翰威利父子公司。加思·托马斯,2017。现实主义及其对朝鲜、韩国和中国核项目的影响硕士论文。巴尔的摩,马里兰州:约翰霍普金斯大学,八月。于2022年6月27日生效。https://jscholarship.library.jhu.edu/bitstream/handle/1774.2/60434/THOMAS-THESIS 2017. pdf ?序列= 1最差= y。Paul R. Viotti和Mark V. Kauppi, 2012。国际关系理论。波士顿:朗文。阿里阿德涅,弗罗曼,2010。辩论方法:重新发现定性方法。《政治学理论与方法》,大卫·马什和格里·斯托克主编,249-266页。贝辛斯托克:帕尔格雷夫·麦克米伦。肯尼斯·n·华尔兹,1979。“国际政治理论”。阅读:艾迪生-韦斯利出版公司。肯尼斯·华尔兹,2000。冷战后的结构现实主义>,《国际安全》25(1),第5 - 41页。韩联社2018年。米尔斯海默:朝鲜不会放弃核武器。3月20日。2023年5月18日生效。https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20180320010200315。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
What Drives Nuclear-Aspiring States? The Cases of Iran and North Korea
Why do states want to acquire nuclear weapons? In other words, what drives nuclear-aspiring states? This is the basic question that the author seeks to address in this research. To do so, this research will focus on two standout cases: Iran and North Korea. By employing structural realism as a tool of analysis, the author argues that it is the structure of the international system that drives both Iran and North Korea to acquire nuclear weapons of their own. Specifically, it is the highly unequal distribution of power both regionally and globally that encourages both states to go nuclear. At the global level, both Iran and North Korea found themselves in hostilities with a much more powerful state, the United States. The hostilities and the fact that the United States is way more powerful increase the fear of being attacked in both countries. Similarly, at the regional level, both states face neighbors that are relatively more powerful and have alliances with the United States. Thus, this imbalance of power and the fear it created in both Iran and North Korea give them great incentive to go nuclear, as nuclear weapons would act as a deterrent against any possible aggression. This research is qualitative and based on the literature study data collection method. Keywords: Nuclear proliferation; national security; distribution of capabilities; structural realism REFERENCES   Abulof, Uriel. 2014. "Revisiting Iran’s nuclear rationales." International Politics 51(3), 404-415. Albright, David, and Andrea Stricker. 2010. "Iran’s Nuclear Program." In The Iran Primer: Power, Politics, and US Policy, edited by Robin Wright, 77-81. Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Pres.  Bowen, W.Q., and J. Brewer. 2011. "Iran’s nuclear challenge: Nine years and counting." International Affairs 87(4): 923–943.  Chubin, S. 2007. "Iran: Domestic politics and nuclear choices." In Strategic Asia 2007–08: Domestic Political Change and Grand Strategy, edited by A.J. Tellis, M. Wills and N. Bisley, 301–340. Washington DC: National Bureau of Asian Research.  Cronin, Patrick M. 2008. "The Trouble with North Korea." In Double Trouble: Iran and North Korea as Challenges to International Security, edited by Patrick M. Cronin, 79-89. Wesport: Praeger Security International  Buszynski, Leszek. 2021. "North Korea's Nuclear Diplomacy." In Routledge Handbook of Contemporary North Korea, edited by Adrian Buzo, -170. Oxon: Routledge.  Donnelly, Jack. 2005. "Realism." In Theories of International Relations, edited by Scott Burchill, Andrew Linklater, Richard Devetak, Jack Donnelly, Christian Reus-Smit Matthew Paterson and Jacqui True, 29-54. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.  Greitens, Sheena Chestnut. 2020. "Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction." In The Globalization of World Politics: An Introduction to International Relations, by John Baylis, Steve Smith and Patricia Owens, 465-480. Oxford: Oxford University.  Hobbs, Christopher, and Matthew Moran. 2014. Exploring Regional Responses to a Nuclear Iran. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.  Ikenberry, G. John, Michael Mastanduno, and William C. Wohlforth. 2011. "Introduction: unipolarity, state, and systemic consequenses." In International relations theory and the consequences of unipolarity, edited by G. John Ikenberry, Michael Mastanduno and William C. Wohlforth, 1-32. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.  Jackson, Robert, and Georg Sørensen. 2013. Introduction to International Relations: Theories and Approaches. Oxford: Oxford University Press.  Jackson, Van. 2018. On the Brink: Trump, Kim, and the Threat of Nuclear War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.  Jørgensen, Knud Erik. 2018. International Relations Theory: A New Introduction. London: Palgrave. Kaufman, Joyce P. 2021. A Concise History of U.S. Foreign Policy. Lanham, Maryland: Rowman & Littlefield  Krauthammer, Charles. 1990. "The Unipolar Moment." Foreign Affairs 70(1), 23-33. Mærli, Morten Bremer, and Sverre Lodgaard. 2007. "Introduction." In Nuclear Proliferation and International Security, edited by Morten Bremer Mærli and Sverre Lodgaard, 1-5. Oxon: Routledge.  Mearsheimer, John J. 2018. The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities. New Haven: Yale University Press.  —. 2001. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: WW Norton & Company. Mearsheimer, John J., and Stephen M. Walt. 2007. The Israel Lobby and US Foreign Policy. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.  Pollack, Jonathan D. 2011. No Exit: North Korea, Nuclear Weapons and International Security. New York: Routledge.  Popoola, Michael Akin, Deborah Ebunoluwa Oluwadara, and Abiodun A. Adesegun. 2019. "North Korea Nucler Proliferation in the Context of the Realist Theory: A Review." European Journal of Social Sciences 58(1), 75-82.  Porter, Patrick. 2015. The Global Village Myth: Distance, War and the Limits of Power. Washington, D.C.: Georgetown University Press.  Sharma, Anu. 2022. Through the Looking Glass: Iran and Its Foreign Relations. New York: Routledge  Smith, Shane. 2021. "Nuclear Weapons and North Korean Foreign Policy." In Routledge Handbook of Contemporary North Korea, edited by Adrian Buzo, 141-154. Oxon: Routledge. Tagma, Halit M. E. 2020. "Realism and Iran’s Nuclear Program." In Understanding and Explaining the Iranian Nuclear 'Crisis', by Halit M. E. Tagma and Paul E. Lenze Jr., 65-103. Lanham: Lexington Books.  Tagma, Halit M.E, and Paul E. Lenze Jr. Understanding and Explaining the Iranian Nuclear 'Crisis'. Lanham: Lexington Books, 2020.  Taylor, Steven J., Robert Bogdan, and Marjorie L. DeVault. 2016. Introduction to Qualitative Research Methods: A Guidebook and Resource. New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Thomas, Garth. 2017. " Realism And Its Impact To The North Korean, South Korean, And Chinese Nuclear Programs (." Master's Thesis. Baltimore, Maryland: Johns Hopkins University, August. Accessed June 27, 2022. https://jscholarship.library.jhu.edu/bitstream/handle/1774.2/60434/THOMAS-THESIS 2017.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y.  Viotti, Paul R., and Mark V. Kauppi. 2012. International Relations Theory. Boston: Longman. Vromen, Ariadne. 2010. "Debating Methods: Rediscovering Qualitative Approaches." In Theory and Methods in Political Science, edited by David Marsh and Gerry Stoker, 249-266. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.  Waltz, Kenneth N. 1979. Theory of International Politics. Reading: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Inc.  Waltz, Kenneth. 2000. "Structural Realism after the Cold War ." International Security 25(1), pp. 5– 41.  Yonhap News Agency. 2018. N. Korea will not give up nuclear weapons: Mearsheimer . March 20. Accessed May 18, 2023. https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20180320010200315.
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