中国智能电网高能耗用户电力需求模型初步研究

Hongbin Sun, Weiyong Jiang, Bin Wang, Qinglai Guo, Boming Zhang, Kang Wang
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引用次数: 1

摘要

随着智能电网的发展,高能耗用户电力需求模型的研究成为国内的一个重要课题。在初步研究的基础上,建立了基于数据挖掘的高能耗用户初始电力需求模型。该模型揭示了电力需求与市场因素之间的关系,可应用于中国市场环境下的高耗能企业需求侧管理。提出了一种基于消费者分类和高能耗消费者需求模型的电力需求预测方法。该模型也可应用于电力需求侧管理的战略制定。案例研究采用贵阳市电网的实际数据进行,贵阳市电网的电力需求很大一部分来自以荧光粉厂和电解铝厂为主的高能耗企业。实例研究结果表明,该模型显著提高了需求预测精度,可为高能耗用户制定定量的需求侧管理策略。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Preliminary research on power demand model of high energy consumers for smart grid in China
With development of smart grid, study of power demand model of high energy consumers becomes an important topic in China. As a result of preliminary research, initial power demand model of high energy consumer is built up based on data mining. Such a model opens out the relationship of power demand and market factors, which can be applied to demand side management (DSM) for high energy consumers under Chinese market environment. A power demand forecasting method based on consumer classification and high energy consumer demand model is proposed. Such a model can also be applied to strategy making in DSM. Case study is carried out with real-life data from Guiyang city power grid where a large percentage of power demand is that from high energy consumers mainly consisting of phosphor plants and electrolytic aluminum plants. Case study results shows that demand forecasting precision is improved significantly and quantitative DSM strategies for high energy consumers can be made based on the proposed model.
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