中国P2P借贷对互联网金融的风险溢出效应

Meiling Yan
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文分析了互联网金融的主要形式之一——P2P借贷。首先,利用EGARCH-GED模型分析了中国P2P借贷收益率的波动。实证结果表明,网贷收益率波动具有聚类效应和风险积累效应,并具有杠杆效应。然后在此基础上,运用Copula函数得到网贷平台与互联网金融之间的整体相关系数和尾部相关系数。研究结果表明,P2P借贷平台收益率的波动与互联网金融指标收益率的变化呈正相关关系,且尾部相关性不对称,上尾相关性较显著,下尾相关性不明显。因此,监管部门应建立适合中国互联网金融发展的综合监管模式,完善法律和监管体系,完善信用信息体系和信息披露制度,加强投资者教育。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Risk Spillover Effect of China’s P2P (Peer-to-peer) Lending on Internet Finance
The article analyzes the P2P lending, one of the main formats of internet finance. Firstly, the EGARCH-GED model is used to analyze the fluctuation of the yield of China's P2P lending. The empirical results show that the fluctuation of online loan yield has clustering and risk accumulation effects, and it also has leverage effect. Then, based on this, the Copula function is used to obtain the overall correlation coefficient and tail correlation coefficient between the online loan platform and Internet finance. The research results show that the fluctuation of the P2P lending platform's yield has a positive correlation with the change of the Internet financial index's return rate, and the tail correlation is asymmetric, the upper tail correlation is more significant, and the lower tail correlation is not obvious. Therefore, the supervision authorities should establish a comprehensive supervision mode suitable for the development of China's Internet finance, improve laws and the supervision system, perfect the credit information system and information disclosure system, and strengthen investors' education.
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