{"title":"考虑电力平准化成本和大型电池储能的未来电价发展分析与建模","authors":"S. Baum, C. von Kalben, A. Maas, I. Stadler","doi":"10.1109/IESC.2018.8440005","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper deals with an analysis of the future development of electricity prices by taking the levelized costs of electricity (LCOE) into account. Based on learning curves the amount of future investment costs for renewable energy and a battery storage can be modelled. Using the annuity method by considering forecasted future fuel and CO2 certificate costs, the LCOE for the investigated power plants and storage is calculated for the years 2017, 2030 and 2050. These LCOE are converted into a merit order by taking a possible development of the German power plants into account. The results show that renewable energy will be ahead of conventional power plants in a merit order classified by the LCOE in the years 2030 and 2050. The analysis also shows that the levelized costs of storage (LCOS) in combination with electricity generated by PV or onshore wind turbines is cheaper than the production in a coal-fired power plant.","PeriodicalId":147306,"journal":{"name":"2018 7th International Energy and Sustainability Conference (IESC)","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2018-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"8","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Analysis and Modelling of the Future Electricity Price Development by taking the Levelized Cost of Electricity and large Battery Storages into Account\",\"authors\":\"S. Baum, C. von Kalben, A. Maas, I. Stadler\",\"doi\":\"10.1109/IESC.2018.8440005\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This paper deals with an analysis of the future development of electricity prices by taking the levelized costs of electricity (LCOE) into account. Based on learning curves the amount of future investment costs for renewable energy and a battery storage can be modelled. Using the annuity method by considering forecasted future fuel and CO2 certificate costs, the LCOE for the investigated power plants and storage is calculated for the years 2017, 2030 and 2050. These LCOE are converted into a merit order by taking a possible development of the German power plants into account. The results show that renewable energy will be ahead of conventional power plants in a merit order classified by the LCOE in the years 2030 and 2050. The analysis also shows that the levelized costs of storage (LCOS) in combination with electricity generated by PV or onshore wind turbines is cheaper than the production in a coal-fired power plant.\",\"PeriodicalId\":147306,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"2018 7th International Energy and Sustainability Conference (IESC)\",\"volume\":\"30 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2018-05-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"8\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"2018 7th International Energy and Sustainability Conference (IESC)\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1109/IESC.2018.8440005\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"2018 7th International Energy and Sustainability Conference (IESC)","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1109/IESC.2018.8440005","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Analysis and Modelling of the Future Electricity Price Development by taking the Levelized Cost of Electricity and large Battery Storages into Account
This paper deals with an analysis of the future development of electricity prices by taking the levelized costs of electricity (LCOE) into account. Based on learning curves the amount of future investment costs for renewable energy and a battery storage can be modelled. Using the annuity method by considering forecasted future fuel and CO2 certificate costs, the LCOE for the investigated power plants and storage is calculated for the years 2017, 2030 and 2050. These LCOE are converted into a merit order by taking a possible development of the German power plants into account. The results show that renewable energy will be ahead of conventional power plants in a merit order classified by the LCOE in the years 2030 and 2050. The analysis also shows that the levelized costs of storage (LCOS) in combination with electricity generated by PV or onshore wind turbines is cheaper than the production in a coal-fired power plant.
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