中非贸易强度对非洲贫困率的近期和长期影响

O. Saibu, Solomon Akinyele
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摘要

中国在非洲仍然是一个重要的国际角色,对非洲贸易和资本流入的贡献远远超过其他国家。这些流入如何促成非洲普遍的贫穷发生率和严重程度仍然是一个经验问题。该研究利用1990年至2017年20个非洲国家的数据,调查了中非贸易关系对贫困发生率的短期和长期影响。为了捕捉这种联系,我们修改了标准的内生增长模型,将贫困与选定的非洲国家与中国之间的贸易联系起来。在建立变量的时间序列属性后,使用动态和完全修正的OLS技术对模型进行估计。分析结果表明,中非贸易强度的增加对非洲是有利的,证据也证实了这是可持续的,即使从长远来看。出口虽然规模很小,但从长远来看,它对减少贫困的贡献比进口更大。人们还确定,从长远来看,人均收入的增加对减贫具有更大的重大影响。但是,从短期和长期来看,家庭最后消费支出是非洲减少贫穷的一个重大挫折。事实上,它不仅加剧了贫穷,而且压倒了减轻贸易强度和增加人均收入的潜力。这一结果的政策含义是,为增加出口和提高非洲国内生产力而采取更好的贸易政策,是在长期内提高当地生产效率和增加人均收入所必需的
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Immediate and Long-Term Impacts of Africa – China Trade Intensity on Poverty Incidence in Africa
China remains a key international player in Africa, contributing much more than other countries to the trade and capital inflows to Africa. How these inflows have contributed to the prevailing poverty incidences and severity in Africa remain an empirical issue. The study investigated the short and long-run impact of Africa-China trade relations on poverty incidences using data from 1990 to 2017 for 20 African countries. To capture the linkage, the standard endogenous growth model was remodified to link poverty to trade between the selected African countries and China. The model was estimated using the dynamic and fully modified OLS techniques after establishing the time-series properties of the variables. The result of the analysis showed that the increased trade intensity between Africa and China has been beneficial to Africa and the evidence also confirmed that it is sustainable even in the long run. Export despite its meager size was a more significant contributor to poverty reduction than imports in the long run. It was also established that increased per capita income has greater significant impacts on poverty reduction in the long run. However, household final consumption expenditure was a major setback to poverty reduction in Africa both in the short and long run, Indeed, not only it aggravates poverty, it overwhelmed the alleviating potentials of both trade intensity and increase per capita income. The policy implication of the result is that better trade policy for increased exportation and increased domestic productivity in Africa are necessary for more improved efficiency of local production and increased per capita income over a long period
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