{"title":"一位经济学家和一位心理学家排成一行:对长度的不完美感知能告诉我们关于随机选择的什么?","authors":"Sean Duffy, John Smith","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3566964","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Standard choice experiments are hampered by the fact that utility is either unknown or imperfectly measured by experimenters. As a consequence, the inferences available to researchers are limited. By contrast, we design a choice experiment where the objects are valued according to only a single attribute with a continuous measure and we can observe the true preferences of subjects. Subjects have an imperfect perception of the choice objects but can improve the precision of their perception with cognitive effort. Subjects are given a choice set involving several lines of various lengths and are told to select one of them. They strive to select the longest line because they are paid an amount that increases with the length of their choice. Our design allows us to observe the search history, the response times, and make unambiguous conclusions about the optimality of choices. We find a negative relationship between the demanding nature of the choice problems and the likelihood that subjects select the optimal lines. We also find a positive relationship between the demanding nature of the choice problems and the response times. However, we find evidence that suboptimal choices are associated with longer response times than are optimal choices. This result appears to be consistent with Fudenberg, Strack, and Strzalecki (2018). Additionally, our experimental design permits a multinomial discrete choice analysis. Our results suggest that the errors in our data are better described as having a Gumbel distribution rather than a normal distribution. We also observe effects consistent with memory decay and attention. 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By contrast, we design a choice experiment where the objects are valued according to only a single attribute with a continuous measure and we can observe the true preferences of subjects. Subjects have an imperfect perception of the choice objects but can improve the precision of their perception with cognitive effort. Subjects are given a choice set involving several lines of various lengths and are told to select one of them. They strive to select the longest line because they are paid an amount that increases with the length of their choice. Our design allows us to observe the search history, the response times, and make unambiguous conclusions about the optimality of choices. We find a negative relationship between the demanding nature of the choice problems and the likelihood that subjects select the optimal lines. We also find a positive relationship between the demanding nature of the choice problems and the response times. 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引用次数: 2
摘要
标准选择实验受到效用未知或实验者测量不完美这一事实的阻碍。因此,研究人员可以得到的推论是有限的。相比之下,我们设计了一个选择实验,其中对象仅根据单一属性进行评估,并具有连续的度量,我们可以观察到受试者的真实偏好。被试对选择对象的感知是不完美的,但通过认知努力可以提高其感知的准确性。研究人员给受试者一组包含几条不同长度的线的选择集,并让他们从中选择一条。他们尽量选择最长的队伍,因为他们得到的报酬会随着选择的长度而增加。我们的设计允许我们观察搜索历史,响应时间,并对选择的最优性做出明确的结论。我们发现选择问题的要求性质与受试者选择最优线路的可能性之间存在负相关关系。我们还发现,选择问题的要求性质与响应时间之间存在正相关关系。然而,我们发现有证据表明,次优选择比最优选择的响应时间更长。这一结果似乎与Fudenberg, Strack, and Strzalecki(2018)一致。此外,我们的实验设计允许多项离散选择分析。我们的结果表明,我们数据中的误差更好地描述为具有甘贝尔分布而不是正态分布。我们还观察到与记忆衰退和注意力一致的效应。最后,我们发现证据表明,在我们的实验中,选择表现出与无关选择(IIA)属性的独立性。
An Economist and a Psychologist Form a Line: What Can Imperfect Perception of Length Tell Us About Stochastic Choice?
Standard choice experiments are hampered by the fact that utility is either unknown or imperfectly measured by experimenters. As a consequence, the inferences available to researchers are limited. By contrast, we design a choice experiment where the objects are valued according to only a single attribute with a continuous measure and we can observe the true preferences of subjects. Subjects have an imperfect perception of the choice objects but can improve the precision of their perception with cognitive effort. Subjects are given a choice set involving several lines of various lengths and are told to select one of them. They strive to select the longest line because they are paid an amount that increases with the length of their choice. Our design allows us to observe the search history, the response times, and make unambiguous conclusions about the optimality of choices. We find a negative relationship between the demanding nature of the choice problems and the likelihood that subjects select the optimal lines. We also find a positive relationship between the demanding nature of the choice problems and the response times. However, we find evidence that suboptimal choices are associated with longer response times than are optimal choices. This result appears to be consistent with Fudenberg, Strack, and Strzalecki (2018). Additionally, our experimental design permits a multinomial discrete choice analysis. Our results suggest that the errors in our data are better described as having a Gumbel distribution rather than a normal distribution. We also observe effects consistent with memory decay and attention. Finally, we find evidence that choices in our experiment exhibit the independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property.