温室气体的测量和管理至关重要,但要始终着眼于推进减缓气候变化的最终游戏

M. Trexler
{"title":"温室气体的测量和管理至关重要,但要始终着眼于推进减缓气候变化的最终游戏","authors":"M. Trexler","doi":"10.1080/20430779.2011.579353","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"It has become almost a truism that we tend to not manage what we don’t (or can’t) measure. Measuring GHG emissions is obviously important, and the new Greenhouse Gas Measurement and Management journal can contribute to the development of reliable measurement and verification metrics for GHG emissions and removals. As we pursue that objective, however, we should not make the mistake of assuming that we necessarily ‘manage what we measure’, or that all GHG measurement and management efforts are created equal in the eyes of climate change mitigation. Most of all, we should not make the mistake of assuming that better measurement is an end in and of itself. Confusing means and ends is easy to do when talking about climate change, particularly when we lack key elements of the policy framework needed to address the problem. It is easy to focus inordinately on those variables we feel we do have some control over. But climate change is a complicated and long-term problem, as is climate change mitigation. It is natural to look for proxy success indicators that are simple and measurable, like emissions disclosure efforts, emissions reduction targets, and measurement and verification protocols. Indeed, it’s important to have nearand medium-term success indicators to keep ourselves motivated. The use of proxy success indicators is not without risk. The wrong success indicators, or confusing the ends and means of climate change mitigation, can easily distract us from the long-term ‘end game’. Successful climate change mitigation would almost certainly require a combination of aggressive regulation, a material carbon price and radical technology innovation. That’s the end game. Getting from here to there will be even tougher if we lose sight of the target by focusing on the wrong proxies, or on ‘means’ rather than ‘ends’. Today, many published articles in the climate change field are little more than a presentation of better statistics relating to GHG emissions or removals, whether at the project or systems level. Such articles implicitly assume that improving the measurement of sources and sinks is an end in and of itself. Is that always true? As we launch the Greenhouse Gas Measurement and Management journal, we should recognize that this journal can make a larger contribution to the field if we always keep one eye on ‘the end game’. With that in mind, we should ask authors presenting statistically significant results to explain whether their conclusions are also policy significant, and why. For example, does an article on the improved measurement of standing forest stocks have significant implications for estimates of the country’s GHG inventory, how we think about other countries’ GHG inventories, or how we think about carbon sequestration potentials in the country? When an author estimates the mitigation potential of a particular technology, does the author provide crucial information on the cost-effectiveness of that technology as a mitigation strategy, and how that played into estimating its perceived potential? In other words, do the findings in a given article improve our larger understanding of how to advance the cause of climate change mitigation? Do the results being published have the potential to contribute to better policy decision making in the future? In other words, are the improvements ‘policy significant’, as opposed to just ‘statistically significant’? These questions apply equally importantly to both the GHG measurement and GHG management aspects of the","PeriodicalId":411329,"journal":{"name":"Greenhouse Gas Measurement and Management","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2011-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"7","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"GHG measurement and management are vital, but always be looking to advance the end game of mitigating climate change\",\"authors\":\"M. Trexler\",\"doi\":\"10.1080/20430779.2011.579353\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"It has become almost a truism that we tend to not manage what we don’t (or can’t) measure. Measuring GHG emissions is obviously important, and the new Greenhouse Gas Measurement and Management journal can contribute to the development of reliable measurement and verification metrics for GHG emissions and removals. As we pursue that objective, however, we should not make the mistake of assuming that we necessarily ‘manage what we measure’, or that all GHG measurement and management efforts are created equal in the eyes of climate change mitigation. Most of all, we should not make the mistake of assuming that better measurement is an end in and of itself. Confusing means and ends is easy to do when talking about climate change, particularly when we lack key elements of the policy framework needed to address the problem. It is easy to focus inordinately on those variables we feel we do have some control over. But climate change is a complicated and long-term problem, as is climate change mitigation. It is natural to look for proxy success indicators that are simple and measurable, like emissions disclosure efforts, emissions reduction targets, and measurement and verification protocols. Indeed, it’s important to have nearand medium-term success indicators to keep ourselves motivated. The use of proxy success indicators is not without risk. The wrong success indicators, or confusing the ends and means of climate change mitigation, can easily distract us from the long-term ‘end game’. Successful climate change mitigation would almost certainly require a combination of aggressive regulation, a material carbon price and radical technology innovation. That’s the end game. Getting from here to there will be even tougher if we lose sight of the target by focusing on the wrong proxies, or on ‘means’ rather than ‘ends’. Today, many published articles in the climate change field are little more than a presentation of better statistics relating to GHG emissions or removals, whether at the project or systems level. Such articles implicitly assume that improving the measurement of sources and sinks is an end in and of itself. Is that always true? As we launch the Greenhouse Gas Measurement and Management journal, we should recognize that this journal can make a larger contribution to the field if we always keep one eye on ‘the end game’. With that in mind, we should ask authors presenting statistically significant results to explain whether their conclusions are also policy significant, and why. For example, does an article on the improved measurement of standing forest stocks have significant implications for estimates of the country’s GHG inventory, how we think about other countries’ GHG inventories, or how we think about carbon sequestration potentials in the country? When an author estimates the mitigation potential of a particular technology, does the author provide crucial information on the cost-effectiveness of that technology as a mitigation strategy, and how that played into estimating its perceived potential? In other words, do the findings in a given article improve our larger understanding of how to advance the cause of climate change mitigation? Do the results being published have the potential to contribute to better policy decision making in the future? In other words, are the improvements ‘policy significant’, as opposed to just ‘statistically significant’? These questions apply equally importantly to both the GHG measurement and GHG management aspects of the\",\"PeriodicalId\":411329,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Greenhouse Gas Measurement and Management\",\"volume\":\"18 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2011-06-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"7\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Greenhouse Gas Measurement and Management\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1080/20430779.2011.579353\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Greenhouse Gas Measurement and Management","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/20430779.2011.579353","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7

摘要

我们往往不去管理那些我们不能(或不能)衡量的东西,这几乎已经成为一个不言自明的事实。测量温室气体排放显然很重要,新的《温室气体测量与管理》杂志可以为温室气体排放和清除的可靠测量和验证指标的发展做出贡献。然而,在我们追求这一目标的过程中,我们不应错误地假设我们必须"管理我们所测量的东西",或者认为在减缓气候变化方面,所有的温室气体测量和管理工作都是平等的。最重要的是,我们不应该错误地认为更好的测量本身就是目的。在谈论气候变化时,手段和目的很容易混淆,特别是当我们缺乏解决问题所需的政策框架的关键要素时。我们很容易过分关注那些我们觉得自己确实可以控制的变量。但是,气候变化是一个复杂而长期的问题,减缓气候变化也是如此。寻找简单而可衡量的代理成功指标是很自然的,比如排放披露努力、减排目标以及测量和核查协议。事实上,有近期和中期的成功指标来激励自己是很重要的。使用代理成功指标并非没有风险。错误的成功指标,或者混淆减缓气候变化的目的和手段,很容易分散我们对长期“最终游戏”的注意力。几乎可以肯定,要想成功减缓气候变化,需要积极的监管、实质性的碳价格和激进的技术创新相结合。这就是游戏的结局。如果我们把注意力集中在错误的代理上,或者只关注“手段”而不是“目的”,而忽视了目标,那么从这里到那里将更加困难。今天,在气候变化领域发表的许多文章只不过是在项目或系统层面介绍与温室气体排放或清除有关的更好的统计数据。这类文章含蓄地假定改进源汇测量本身就是目的。总是这样吗?当我们创办《温室气体测量与管理》杂志时,我们应该认识到,如果我们始终关注“最终游戏”,这本杂志可以为该领域做出更大的贡献。考虑到这一点,我们应该要求提出统计显著结果的作者解释他们的结论是否也具有政策显著性,以及为什么。例如,一篇关于改进现有森林储量测量方法的文章是否对估算该国的温室气体清单、我们如何看待其他国家的温室气体清单,或者我们如何看待该国的碳固存潜力有重大影响?在提交人估计某一特定技术的缓解潜力时,提交人是否提供了关于该技术作为一种缓解战略的成本效益的关键信息,以及这在估计其感知潜力时是如何发挥作用的?换句话说,某篇文章中的发现是否提高了我们对如何推进减缓气候变化事业的更广泛理解?发表的结果是否有可能有助于未来更好的政策决策?换句话说,这些改善是“政策显著”,还是仅仅是“统计显著”?这些问题同样重要地适用于温室气体测量和温室气体管理方面
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
GHG measurement and management are vital, but always be looking to advance the end game of mitigating climate change
It has become almost a truism that we tend to not manage what we don’t (or can’t) measure. Measuring GHG emissions is obviously important, and the new Greenhouse Gas Measurement and Management journal can contribute to the development of reliable measurement and verification metrics for GHG emissions and removals. As we pursue that objective, however, we should not make the mistake of assuming that we necessarily ‘manage what we measure’, or that all GHG measurement and management efforts are created equal in the eyes of climate change mitigation. Most of all, we should not make the mistake of assuming that better measurement is an end in and of itself. Confusing means and ends is easy to do when talking about climate change, particularly when we lack key elements of the policy framework needed to address the problem. It is easy to focus inordinately on those variables we feel we do have some control over. But climate change is a complicated and long-term problem, as is climate change mitigation. It is natural to look for proxy success indicators that are simple and measurable, like emissions disclosure efforts, emissions reduction targets, and measurement and verification protocols. Indeed, it’s important to have nearand medium-term success indicators to keep ourselves motivated. The use of proxy success indicators is not without risk. The wrong success indicators, or confusing the ends and means of climate change mitigation, can easily distract us from the long-term ‘end game’. Successful climate change mitigation would almost certainly require a combination of aggressive regulation, a material carbon price and radical technology innovation. That’s the end game. Getting from here to there will be even tougher if we lose sight of the target by focusing on the wrong proxies, or on ‘means’ rather than ‘ends’. Today, many published articles in the climate change field are little more than a presentation of better statistics relating to GHG emissions or removals, whether at the project or systems level. Such articles implicitly assume that improving the measurement of sources and sinks is an end in and of itself. Is that always true? As we launch the Greenhouse Gas Measurement and Management journal, we should recognize that this journal can make a larger contribution to the field if we always keep one eye on ‘the end game’. With that in mind, we should ask authors presenting statistically significant results to explain whether their conclusions are also policy significant, and why. For example, does an article on the improved measurement of standing forest stocks have significant implications for estimates of the country’s GHG inventory, how we think about other countries’ GHG inventories, or how we think about carbon sequestration potentials in the country? When an author estimates the mitigation potential of a particular technology, does the author provide crucial information on the cost-effectiveness of that technology as a mitigation strategy, and how that played into estimating its perceived potential? In other words, do the findings in a given article improve our larger understanding of how to advance the cause of climate change mitigation? Do the results being published have the potential to contribute to better policy decision making in the future? In other words, are the improvements ‘policy significant’, as opposed to just ‘statistically significant’? These questions apply equally importantly to both the GHG measurement and GHG management aspects of the
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信