Comparison and analysis of product stage and service life uncertainties in life cycle assessment of building elements

Life cycle assessment (LCA) has the potential to inform building decisions from the planning process to conceptual design. As such, there is intrinsic uncertainty that needs to be explored further to allow for proper decisions to be made. These uncertainties may be related to parameter definition, such as life cycle inventory or model as service life definition. This paper aims to analyze the influence of two recognized sources of uncertainties in LCA of buildings: product stage uncertainties and uncertainties from SL during the use stage. The Monte Carlo simulation method is applied to conduct uncertainty analysis of the LCA results of four building elements, namely, external cement plaster, external clay brick wall, external painting and internal painting. The functional unit is 1 m2 of each building element. Three different building reference study periods are considered: 50, 120 and 500 years. A global warming potential impact category is chosen since it is one of the most significant indicators for climate change mitigation strategies. Results indicate that SL uncertainties are greater than product stage uncertainties for the four building elements analyzed. Furthermore, based on the findings from this study, distribution choice influences the uncertainty analysis results in Monte Carlo simulation. Standardizing modeling of SL in the LCA of buildings could guide building LCA practitioners and researchers and lead to more comparable results.