平均工资、货币供给和通货膨胀?基于灰色关联度和状态空间模型的实证分析

2015 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services (GSIS) Pub Date : 2015-10-26 DOI:10.1109/GSIS.2015.7301839

Xiao-yang Chen, Z. Su, Yong Liu

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引用次数: 1

摘要

通过灰色关联度分析，发现工资和货币供应量对通货膨胀率都有重要影响。然后利用状态空间模型估计工资对通货膨胀的时变弹性和M2对通货膨胀的时变弹性。估计表明，2000年以后，工资和M2对通货膨胀的影响逐渐稳定，与2000年以前的影响形成对比。货币供给因素比工资因素更能解释通货膨胀。

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Average wage, money supply and inflation? empirical analysis based on the grey incidence's degree and the state space model

With the help of grey incidence's degree, this paper identifies that the factors of wage and money supply both have an important impact on inflation rate. Then the paper estimates the time-varying elasticity of wage on inflation and the time-varying elasticity of M2 on inflation by using the state space model. The estimation indicates that after the year of 2000, the effect of wage and M2 on inflation is stable gradually, which is in contrast to the effect before the year of 2000. And the factor of money supply is a better explanation of inflation than the factor of wage.

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2015 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services (GSIS)

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