基于疫苗物流、SARS-CoV-2变异和传播率的COVID-19大流行评估模拟方法

IF 1.3 4区 工程技术 Q4 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS
Burak Erkayman, Ferhat Ak, Sadrettin Çodur
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引用次数: 0

摘要

尽管冠状病毒(COVID-19)大流行的临床护理取得了进展,但由于其迅速传播和不同变体的出现,全民干预对于有效管理大流行至关重要。控制疾病传播的最重要干预措施之一是接种疫苗。考虑影响新冠肺炎疫情传播速度的因素,设计了基于系统动力学的易感感染愈合(susceptibility - infected heal, SIR)扩展模型。该模型根据接种疫苗的数量预测达到70%的群体免疫力需要多长时间。设计的仿真模型在AnyLogic 8.7.2程序中建模。该模型是针对三种不同的疫苗供应方案和约8300万人口的土耳其进行的。结果表明,在每月供应1500万支疫苗的情况下,社会免疫力在161天内达到70%的目标值,而3000万支疫苗需要117天,4000万支疫苗需要98天。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A simulation approach for COVID-19 pandemic assessment based on vaccine logistics, SARS-CoV-2 variants, and spread rate.

Despite advances in clinical care for the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, population-wide interventions are vital to effectively manage the pandemic due to its rapid spread and the emergence of different variants. One of the most important interventions to control the spread of the disease is vaccination. In this study, an extended Susceptible-Infected Healed (SIR) model based on System Dynamics was designed, considering the factors affecting the rate of spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. The model predicts how long it will take to reach 70% herd immunity based on the number of vaccines administered. The designed simulation model is modeled in AnyLogic 8.7.2 program. The model was performed for three different vaccine supply scenarios and for Turkey with ~83 million population. The results show that, with a monthly supply of 15 million vaccines, social immunity reached the target value of 70% in 161 days, while this number was 117 days for 30 million vaccines and 98 days for 40 million vaccines.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.50
自引率
31.20%
发文量
60
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: SIMULATION is a peer-reviewed journal, which covers subjects including the modelling and simulation of: computer networking and communications, high performance computers, real-time systems, mobile and intelligent agents, simulation software, and language design, system engineering and design, aerospace, traffic systems, microelectronics, robotics, mechatronics, and air traffic and chemistry, physics, biology, medicine, biomedicine, sociology, and cognition.
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