Joseph B. Courtney , Andrew D. Burton , Christopher S. Velden , Timothy L. Olander , Elizabeth A. Ritchie , Clair Stark , Leon Majewski
{"title":"建立澳大利亚地区热带气旋客观历史数据集","authors":"Joseph B. Courtney , Andrew D. Burton , Christopher S. Velden , Timothy L. Olander , Elizabeth A. Ritchie , Clair Stark , Leon Majewski","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.03.003","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The appropriate design of infrastructure in tropical cyclone (TC) prone regions requires an understanding of the hazard risk profile underpinned by an accurate, homogenous long-term TC dataset. The existing Australian region TC archive, or ‘best track’ (BT), suffers from inhomogeneities and an incomplete long-term record of key TC parameters. This study assesses mostly satellite-based objective techniques for 1981–2016, the period of a geostationary satellite imagery dataset corrected for navigation and calibration issues. The satellite-based estimates of Australian-region TCs suffer from a general degradation in the 1981–1988 period owing to lower quality and availability of satellite imagery.</p><p>The quality of the objective techniques for both intensity and structure is compared to the reference BT 2003–2016 estimates. For intensity the Advanced Dvorak Technique algorithm corresponds well with the BT 2003–2016, when the algorithm can use passive microwave data (PMW) as an input. For the period prior to 2003 when PMW data is unavailable, the intensity algorithm has a low bias. Systematic corrections were made to the non-PMW objective estimates to produce an extended (1989–2016) homogeneous dataset of maximum wind that has sufficient accuracy to be considered for use where a larger homogeneous sample size is valued over a shorter more accurate period of record. An associated record of central pressure using the Courtney-Knaff-Zehr wind pressure relationship was created.</p><p>For size estimates, three techniques were investigated: the Deviation Angle Variance and the ‘Knaff’ techniques (IR-based), while the ‘Lok’ technique used model information (ECMWF reanalysis dataset and TC vortex specification from ACCESS-TC). However, results lacked sufficient skill to enable extension of the reliable period of record. The availability of scatterometer data makes the BT 2003–2016 dataset the most reliable and accurate. Recommendations regarding the best data source for each parameter for different periods of the record are summarised.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"9 1","pages":"Pages 23-36"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4000,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.03.003","citationCount":"4","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Towards an objective historical tropical cyclone dataset for the Australian region\",\"authors\":\"Joseph B. Courtney , Andrew D. Burton , Christopher S. Velden , Timothy L. Olander , Elizabeth A. Ritchie , Clair Stark , Leon Majewski\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.03.003\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>The appropriate design of infrastructure in tropical cyclone (TC) prone regions requires an understanding of the hazard risk profile underpinned by an accurate, homogenous long-term TC dataset. The existing Australian region TC archive, or ‘best track’ (BT), suffers from inhomogeneities and an incomplete long-term record of key TC parameters. This study assesses mostly satellite-based objective techniques for 1981–2016, the period of a geostationary satellite imagery dataset corrected for navigation and calibration issues. The satellite-based estimates of Australian-region TCs suffer from a general degradation in the 1981–1988 period owing to lower quality and availability of satellite imagery.</p><p>The quality of the objective techniques for both intensity and structure is compared to the reference BT 2003–2016 estimates. For intensity the Advanced Dvorak Technique algorithm corresponds well with the BT 2003–2016, when the algorithm can use passive microwave data (PMW) as an input. For the period prior to 2003 when PMW data is unavailable, the intensity algorithm has a low bias. Systematic corrections were made to the non-PMW objective estimates to produce an extended (1989–2016) homogeneous dataset of maximum wind that has sufficient accuracy to be considered for use where a larger homogeneous sample size is valued over a shorter more accurate period of record. An associated record of central pressure using the Courtney-Knaff-Zehr wind pressure relationship was created.</p><p>For size estimates, three techniques were investigated: the Deviation Angle Variance and the ‘Knaff’ techniques (IR-based), while the ‘Lok’ technique used model information (ECMWF reanalysis dataset and TC vortex specification from ACCESS-TC). However, results lacked sufficient skill to enable extension of the reliable period of record. The availability of scatterometer data makes the BT 2003–2016 dataset the most reliable and accurate. Recommendations regarding the best data source for each parameter for different periods of the record are summarised.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":44442,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review\",\"volume\":\"9 1\",\"pages\":\"Pages 23-36\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2020-03-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.03.003\",\"citationCount\":\"4\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603220300138\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603220300138","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Towards an objective historical tropical cyclone dataset for the Australian region
The appropriate design of infrastructure in tropical cyclone (TC) prone regions requires an understanding of the hazard risk profile underpinned by an accurate, homogenous long-term TC dataset. The existing Australian region TC archive, or ‘best track’ (BT), suffers from inhomogeneities and an incomplete long-term record of key TC parameters. This study assesses mostly satellite-based objective techniques for 1981–2016, the period of a geostationary satellite imagery dataset corrected for navigation and calibration issues. The satellite-based estimates of Australian-region TCs suffer from a general degradation in the 1981–1988 period owing to lower quality and availability of satellite imagery.
The quality of the objective techniques for both intensity and structure is compared to the reference BT 2003–2016 estimates. For intensity the Advanced Dvorak Technique algorithm corresponds well with the BT 2003–2016, when the algorithm can use passive microwave data (PMW) as an input. For the period prior to 2003 when PMW data is unavailable, the intensity algorithm has a low bias. Systematic corrections were made to the non-PMW objective estimates to produce an extended (1989–2016) homogeneous dataset of maximum wind that has sufficient accuracy to be considered for use where a larger homogeneous sample size is valued over a shorter more accurate period of record. An associated record of central pressure using the Courtney-Knaff-Zehr wind pressure relationship was created.
For size estimates, three techniques were investigated: the Deviation Angle Variance and the ‘Knaff’ techniques (IR-based), while the ‘Lok’ technique used model information (ECMWF reanalysis dataset and TC vortex specification from ACCESS-TC). However, results lacked sufficient skill to enable extension of the reliable period of record. The availability of scatterometer data makes the BT 2003–2016 dataset the most reliable and accurate. Recommendations regarding the best data source for each parameter for different periods of the record are summarised.
期刊介绍:
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review is an international journal focusing on tropical cyclone monitoring, forecasting, and research as well as associated hydrological effects and disaster risk reduction. This journal is edited and published by the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee (TC) and the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of the China Meteorology Administration (STI/CMA). Contributions from all tropical cyclone basins are welcome.
Scope of the journal includes:
• Reviews of tropical cyclones exhibiting unusual characteristics or behavior or resulting in disastrous impacts on Typhoon Committee Members and other regional WMO bodies
• Advances in applied and basic tropical cyclone research or technology to improve tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings
• Basic theoretical studies of tropical cyclones
• Event reports, compelling images, and topic review reports of tropical cyclones
• Impacts, risk assessments, and risk management techniques related to tropical cyclones