COVID-19对国际贸易的影响:来自第一波冲击的证据

IF 2.6 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Kazunobu Hayakawa , Hiroshi Mukunoki
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引用次数: 95

摘要

本研究调查了COVID-19对国际贸易的影响如何随时间变化。为此,我们研究了2019年和2020年1月至8月的全球贸易月度数据。具体来说,我们的研究数据包括34个国家对173个国家的出口。我们通过使用各种变量作为COVID-19损害的代理来估计重力方程。我们的研究结果可以总结如下:首先,无论我们采取何种量化措施,我们都发现COVID-19对出口国和进口国的国际贸易都产生了显著的负面影响。其次,自2020年7月以来,这些影响,特别是COVID-19对进口国的影响往往变得微不足道。这一结果表明,新冠肺炎疫情对国际贸易的不利影响在第一波疫情后得到了一定程度的适应。第三,我们发现了不同行业的异质效应。对非必要的耐用产品的负面影响持续了很长时间,而对提供医疗产品的行业则产生了积极影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

The impact of COVID-19 on international trade: Evidence from the first shock

The impact of COVID-19 on international trade: Evidence from the first shock

The impact of COVID-19 on international trade: Evidence from the first shock

This study investigates how the effects of COVID-19 on international trade changed over time. To do that, we explore monthly data on worldwide trade from January to August in 2019 and 2020. Specifically, our study data include the exports of 34 countries to 173 countries. We estimated the gravity equation by employing various variables as a proxy for the COVID-19 damage. Our findings can be summarized as follows: First, regardless of our measures to quantify the COVID-19 pandemic, we found significantly negative effects of COVID-19 on the international trade of both exporting and importing countries. Second, those effects, especially the effects of COVID-19 in importing countries, tended to become insignificant since July 2020. This result implies that the harmful impacts of COVID-19 on international trade were accommodated after the first wave of the pandemic to some extent. Third, we found heterogeneous effects across industries. The negative effects on non-essential, durable products persist for a long time, whereas positive effects in industries providing medical products were observed.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.10
自引率
6.90%
发文量
36
期刊介绍: The Journal of the Japanese and International Economies publishes original reports of research devoted to academic analyses of the Japanese economy and its interdependence on other national economies. The Journal also features articles that present related theoretical, empirical, and comparative analyses with their policy implications. Book reviews are also published.
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