利用综合控制方法量化东京奥运会对COVID-19病例的影响

IF 2.6 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Taro Esaka , Takao Fujii
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引用次数: 3

摘要

本文采用综合控制方法(SCM)和Ridge增强SCM估计东京奥运会对东京新确诊病例数的影响。我们使用这些方法进行分析,使我们能够通过数据驱动的方法,将东京(日本)的反事实COVID-19病例构建为不受举办奥运会影响的经合组织国家COVID-19病例的最佳加权平均值,从而估计东京奥运会对COVID-19病例的因果影响。根据从不同分析环境中获得的可靠估计,我们发现,与反事实相比,举办东京奥运会显著增加了东京每百万人每日平均COVID-19病例数105至132例(整个日本为47至65例)。这一结果表明,东京(日本)举办奥运会可能导致了新冠病毒感染的扩散。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Quantifying the impact of the Tokyo Olympics on COVID-19 cases using synthetic control methods

Quantifying the impact of the Tokyo Olympics on COVID-19 cases using synthetic control methods

Quantifying the impact of the Tokyo Olympics on COVID-19 cases using synthetic control methods

Quantifying the impact of the Tokyo Olympics on COVID-19 cases using synthetic control methods

This paper uses a synthetic control method (SCM) and a Ridge Augmented SCM to estimate the impact of holding the Tokyo Olympic games on the number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in Tokyo (Japan). Our analysis with these methods enables us to estimate the causal impact of the Tokyo Olympics on COVID-19 cases by constructing counterfactual COVID-19 cases for Tokyo (Japan) as the optimal weighted average of COVID-19 cases of OECD countries that are not affected by holding the Olympics through a data-driven approach. Based on reliable estimates obtained from different analytical settings, we find that, compared to the counterfactuals, holding the Tokyo Olympics significantly increased the daily average number of COVID-19 cases by 105 to 132 cases in Tokyo (47 to 65 cases in Japan as a whole) per million people. This result suggests that holding the Olympics likely led to the spread of COVID-19 infection in Tokyo (Japan).

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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.10
自引率
6.90%
发文量
36
期刊介绍: The Journal of the Japanese and International Economies publishes original reports of research devoted to academic analyses of the Japanese economy and its interdependence on other national economies. The Journal also features articles that present related theoretical, empirical, and comparative analyses with their policy implications. Book reviews are also published.
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