Carotid total plaque area as an independent predictor of short-term subclinical polyvascular atherosclerosis progression and major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events.

Background: The use of ultrasound-based methods for imaging of subclinical atherosclerosis, including measurement of carotid plaque burden (cPB), is a promising direction for further improvement of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) prediction.

Objectives: The aim of the study was to research the prognostic values' significance of cPB indicators with regard to the short-term progression of polyvascular subclinical atherosclerosis and the long-term onset of MACCE.

Design: Single-center prospective cohort study.

Methods: The study included patients 40-64 years of age. All patients underwent duplex scanning (DS) of the carotid and lower limb arteries. The following cPB indicators were determined: carotid plaque score (cPS), maximum carotid plaque thickness (cPTmax), and carotid total plaque area (cTPA). The combined endpoint included the following components: cardiovascular death; nonfatal myocardial infarction; nonfatal stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA); revascularization of the coronary and/or peripheral arteries.

Results: The study included 387 patients, among whom 142 (36.7%) patients underwent repeated DS after 12-24 months. The median follow-up time was 20.0 (13.0; 36.5) months. MACCE were recorded in 33 (8.52%) of patients. cTPA and cPTmax, but not cPS, were independently associated with the progression of subclinical polyvascular atherosclerosis over a period of 13.9 months of follow-up. cTPA, but not cPTmax and cPS, was independently associated with the development of MACCE over a period of 20.0 months of follow-up. Only a cTPA > 42.0 mm² proved to be an independent predictor of both the progression of subclinical polyvascular atherosclerosis and MACCE.

Conclusion: In patients from 40 to 64 years of age with various cardiovascular risks, among the indicators of the cPB, only an increase in cTPA > 42.0 mm² was shown to be independently associated with an increase in the relative risk (RR) of progression of subclinical polyvascular atherosclerosis by 2.38 (1.08-5.25) times, as well as with the development of MACCE by 3.10 (1.54-6.26) times.