Andrew F Brouwer, Jihyoun Jeon, Evelyn Jimenez-Mendoza, Stephanie R Land, Theodore R Holford, Abigail S Friedman, Jamie Tam, Ritesh Mistry, David T Levy, Rafael Meza
{"title":"美国香烟和ENDS过渡模式的变化:2015年至2017年与2017年至2019年PATH研究中对青年和成年人的多州过渡分析。","authors":"Andrew F Brouwer, Jihyoun Jeon, Evelyn Jimenez-Mendoza, Stephanie R Land, Theodore R Holford, Abigail S Friedman, Jamie Tam, Ritesh Mistry, David T Levy, Rafael Meza","doi":"10.1136/tc-2022-057905","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>It is unknown how recent changes in the tobacco product marketplace have impacted transitions in cigarette and electronic nicotine delivery system (ENDS) use.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A multistate transition model was applied to 24 242 adults and 12 067 youth in waves 2-4 (2015-2017) and 28 061 adults and 12 538 youth in waves 4 and 5 (2017-2019) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study. Transition rates for initiation, cessation and product transitions were estimated in multivariable models, accounting for gender, age group, race/ethnicity and daily versus non-daily product use.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Changes in ENDS initiation/relapse rates depended on age, including among adults. Among youth who had never established tobacco use, the 1-year probability of ENDS initiation increased after 2017 from 1.6% (95% CI 1.4% to 1.8%) to 3.8% (95% CI 3.4% to 4.2%). Persistence of ENDS-only use (ie, 1-year probability of continuing to use ENDS only) increased for youth from 40.7% (95% CI 34.4% to 46.9%) to 65.7% (95% CI 60.5% to 71.1%) and for adults from 57.8% (95% CI 54.4% to 61.3%) to 78.2% (95% CI 76.0% to 80.4%). Persistence of dual use similarly increased for youth from 48.3% (95% CI 37.4% to 59.2%) to 60.9% (95% CI 43.0% to 78.8%) and for adults from 40.1% (95% CI 37.0% to 43.2%) to 63.8% (95% CI 59.6% to 67.6%). Youth and young adults who used both products became more likely to transition to ENDS-only use, but middle-aged and older adults did not.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>ENDS-only and dual use became more persistent. Middle-aged and older adults who used both products became less likely to transition to cigarette-only use but not more likely to discontinue cigarettes. Youth and young adults became more likely to transition to ENDS-only use.</p>","PeriodicalId":23145,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10533746/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Changing patterns of cigarette and ENDS transitions in the USA: a multistate transition analysis of youth and adults in the PATH Study in 2015-2017 vs 2017-2019.\",\"authors\":\"Andrew F Brouwer, Jihyoun Jeon, Evelyn Jimenez-Mendoza, Stephanie R Land, Theodore R Holford, Abigail S Friedman, Jamie Tam, Ritesh Mistry, David T Levy, Rafael Meza\",\"doi\":\"10.1136/tc-2022-057905\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>It is unknown how recent changes in the tobacco product marketplace have impacted transitions in cigarette and electronic nicotine delivery system (ENDS) use.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A multistate transition model was applied to 24 242 adults and 12 067 youth in waves 2-4 (2015-2017) and 28 061 adults and 12 538 youth in waves 4 and 5 (2017-2019) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study. Transition rates for initiation, cessation and product transitions were estimated in multivariable models, accounting for gender, age group, race/ethnicity and daily versus non-daily product use.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Changes in ENDS initiation/relapse rates depended on age, including among adults. Among youth who had never established tobacco use, the 1-year probability of ENDS initiation increased after 2017 from 1.6% (95% CI 1.4% to 1.8%) to 3.8% (95% CI 3.4% to 4.2%). Persistence of ENDS-only use (ie, 1-year probability of continuing to use ENDS only) increased for youth from 40.7% (95% CI 34.4% to 46.9%) to 65.7% (95% CI 60.5% to 71.1%) and for adults from 57.8% (95% CI 54.4% to 61.3%) to 78.2% (95% CI 76.0% to 80.4%). Persistence of dual use similarly increased for youth from 48.3% (95% CI 37.4% to 59.2%) to 60.9% (95% CI 43.0% to 78.8%) and for adults from 40.1% (95% CI 37.0% to 43.2%) to 63.8% (95% CI 59.6% to 67.6%). Youth and young adults who used both products became more likely to transition to ENDS-only use, but middle-aged and older adults did not.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>ENDS-only and dual use became more persistent. Middle-aged and older adults who used both products became less likely to transition to cigarette-only use but not more likely to discontinue cigarettes. Youth and young adults became more likely to transition to ENDS-only use.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":23145,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Tobacco Control\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-25\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10533746/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Tobacco Control\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1136/tc-2022-057905\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Tobacco Control","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1136/tc-2022-057905","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}
Changing patterns of cigarette and ENDS transitions in the USA: a multistate transition analysis of youth and adults in the PATH Study in 2015-2017 vs 2017-2019.
Introduction: It is unknown how recent changes in the tobacco product marketplace have impacted transitions in cigarette and electronic nicotine delivery system (ENDS) use.
Methods: A multistate transition model was applied to 24 242 adults and 12 067 youth in waves 2-4 (2015-2017) and 28 061 adults and 12 538 youth in waves 4 and 5 (2017-2019) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study. Transition rates for initiation, cessation and product transitions were estimated in multivariable models, accounting for gender, age group, race/ethnicity and daily versus non-daily product use.
Results: Changes in ENDS initiation/relapse rates depended on age, including among adults. Among youth who had never established tobacco use, the 1-year probability of ENDS initiation increased after 2017 from 1.6% (95% CI 1.4% to 1.8%) to 3.8% (95% CI 3.4% to 4.2%). Persistence of ENDS-only use (ie, 1-year probability of continuing to use ENDS only) increased for youth from 40.7% (95% CI 34.4% to 46.9%) to 65.7% (95% CI 60.5% to 71.1%) and for adults from 57.8% (95% CI 54.4% to 61.3%) to 78.2% (95% CI 76.0% to 80.4%). Persistence of dual use similarly increased for youth from 48.3% (95% CI 37.4% to 59.2%) to 60.9% (95% CI 43.0% to 78.8%) and for adults from 40.1% (95% CI 37.0% to 43.2%) to 63.8% (95% CI 59.6% to 67.6%). Youth and young adults who used both products became more likely to transition to ENDS-only use, but middle-aged and older adults did not.
Conclusions: ENDS-only and dual use became more persistent. Middle-aged and older adults who used both products became less likely to transition to cigarette-only use but not more likely to discontinue cigarettes. Youth and young adults became more likely to transition to ENDS-only use.
期刊介绍:
Tobacco Control is an international peer-reviewed journal covering the nature and consequences of tobacco use worldwide; tobacco''s effects on population health, the economy, the environment, and society; efforts to prevent and control the global tobacco epidemic through population-level education and policy changes; the ethical dimensions of tobacco control policies; and the activities of the tobacco industry and its allies.