Do pathogens always evolve to be less virulent? The virulence-transmission trade-off in light of the COVID-19 pandemic.

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI:10.1007/s42977-023-00159-2

Ádám Kun, András G Hubai, Adrienn Král, Judit Mokos, Benjámin Áron Mikulecz, Ádám Radványi

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引用次数: 2

Abstract

The direction the evolution of virulence takes in connection with any pathogen is a long-standing question. Formerly, it was theorized that pathogens should always evolve to be less virulent. As observations were not in line with this theoretical outcome, new theories emerged, chief among them the transmission-virulence trade-off hypotheses, which predicts an intermediate level of virulence as the endpoint of evolution. At the moment, we are very much interested in the future evolution of COVID-19's virulence. Here, we show that the disease does not fulfill all the assumptions of the hypothesis. In the case of COVID-19, a higher viral load does not mean a higher risk of death; immunity is not long-lasting; other hosts can act as reservoirs for the virus; and death as a consequence of viral infection does not shorten the infectious period. Consequently, we cannot predict the short- or long-term evolution of the virulence of COVID-19.

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病原体总是进化得毒性更小吗?COVID-19大流行背景下的毒力传播权衡。

与任何病原体有关的毒力进化方向是一个长期存在的问题。以前，理论上认为病原体应该总是进化得毒性更小。由于观察结果与这一理论结果不一致，新的理论出现了，其中主要是传播-毒力权衡假说，该假说预测毒力的中间水平是进化的终点。目前，我们对COVID-19毒力的未来演变非常感兴趣。在这里，我们表明疾病不满足假设的所有假设。就COVID-19而言，更高的病毒载量并不意味着更高的死亡风险;免疫力不是持久的;其他宿主可以作为病毒的宿主;病毒感染导致的死亡并不会缩短感染期。因此，我们无法预测COVID-19毒力的短期或长期演变。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.