Response of legal and illegal cigarette prices to a tax increase in Ethiopia.

IF 4 2区医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Tobacco Control Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI:10.1136/tc-2023-057931

Sisay Derso Mengesha, Hana Ross

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: In 2020, Ethiopia passed a landmark tax proclamation implementing an evidence-based mixed excise system aimed at curbing tobacco use. This study evaluates the impact of the tax increase of more than 600% on both legal and illegal cigarette prices in order to gauge the impact of the tax reform in the presence of a sizeable illicit cigarette market.

Methods: Data on 1774 cigarette prices were obtained from retailers during Empty Cigarette Pack Surveys in the capital and major regional cities conducted in 2018 and 2022. Packs were categorised as 'legal' or 'illicit' using criteria from the tobacco control directives. Descriptive and regression analyses were used to study the cigarette price changes during the period of 2018-2022, capturing the impact of the 2020 tax increase.

Result: Prices of both legal and illegal cigarettes increased in response to the tax increase. In 2018, the stick prices ranged from ETB0.88 (Ethiopian birr) to ETB5.00 for legal cigarettes while they ranged from ETB0.75 to ETB3.25 for illegal ones. In 2022, a legal stick sold for ETB01.50-ETB2.73 and an illegal stick for ETB1.92-ETB8.00. The average real price of legal and illegal brands increased by 18% and 37%, respectively. The multivariate analysis confirms that prices of illicit cigarettes grew faster compared with the legal ones. By 2022, illicit brands were on average more expensive compared with their legal counterparts. This result is statistically significant at p<0.01.

Conclusion: The prices of both legal and illegal cigarettes increased following the 2020 tax increase, with the average real cigarette price increasing by 24%. As a result, the tax increase likely had a positive impact on public health despite a sizeable illicit cigarette market.

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埃塞俄比亚合法和非法香烟价格对增税的反应。

背景：2020 年，埃塞俄比亚通过了一项具有里程碑意义的税收公告，实施了以证据为基础的混合消费税制度，旨在遏制烟草使用。本研究评估了超过 600% 的增税对合法和非法卷烟价格的影响，以衡量在非法卷烟市场规模庞大的情况下税制改革的影响：在 2018 年和 2022 年在首都和主要地区城市进行的空烟盒调查中，从零售商处获得了 1774 支卷烟的价格数据。根据烟草控制指令的标准，将烟包分为 "合法 "和 "非法 "两类。使用描述性和回归分析来研究 2018-2022 年期间卷烟价格的变化，捕捉 2020 年增税的影响：合法卷烟和非法卷烟的价格都因增税而上涨。2018 年，合法香烟的价格从 0.88 埃塞俄比亚比尔到 5.00 埃塞俄比亚比尔不等，而非法香烟的价格则从 0.75 埃塞俄比亚比尔到 3.25 埃塞俄比亚比尔不等。2022 年，一支合法香烟的售价为 01.50 埃塞俄比亚比尔至 2.73 埃塞俄比亚比尔，一支非法香烟的售价为 1.92 埃塞俄比亚比尔至 8.00 埃塞俄比亚比尔。合法和非法品牌的平均实际价格分别上涨了 18% 和 37%。多变量分析证实，与合法香烟相比，非法香烟的价格增长更快。到 2022 年，非法品牌的平均价格要高于合法品牌。这一结果在统计学上具有重大意义（p 结论）：2020 年增税后，合法卷烟和非法卷烟的价格都有所上涨，平均实际卷烟价格上涨了 24%。因此，尽管非法卷烟市场规模庞大，但增税可能对公众健康产生了积极影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Tobacco Control 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生

CiteScore

9.10

自引率

26.90%

发文量

223

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Tobacco Control is an international peer-reviewed journal covering the nature and consequences of tobacco use worldwide; tobacco''s effects on population health, the economy, the environment, and society; efforts to prevent and control the global tobacco epidemic through population-level education and policy changes; the ethical dimensions of tobacco control policies; and the activities of the tobacco industry and its allies.