Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting prognosis of high-grade chondrosarcoma: A surveillance, epidemiology, and end results-based population analysis.
Yu Sun, Chenxi Ouyang, Yu Zhang, Yong Li, Yang Liu, Ming Jiang, Luming Nong, Gongming Gao
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Background: The incidence of chondrosarcoma is increasing every year, and the treatment and prognosis of patients with high-grade chondrosarcoma are becoming more and more important. Nomogram is a tool that can quickly and easily predict the overall survival of tumor patients. Therefore, the development and validation of a nomogram to predict overall survival in patients with high-grade chondrosarcoma was desired.
Methods: We retrospectively collected 396 patients with high-grade chondrosarcoma from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2004 to 2015. Randomly divided into model and validation groups, the best cut-off values for age and tumor size grouping were derived by using X-tile software. Then, independent prognostic factors for high-grade chondrosarcoma were derived by SPSS.26 univariate and multivariate Cox analyses analysis in the model group, and the model was evaluated by using R software, using C-indix and ROC curves, and finally these independent prognostic factors were included in Nomogram.
Results: 396 patients were randomly assigned to the modelling group (n = 280) or the validation group (n = 116). Age, tissue-type, tumor size, AJCC stage, regional expansion and surgery were identified as independent prognostic factors (p < 0.05) which further combined to construct a nomogram. The C-index of internal validation for overall survival(OS) was 0.757, while the C-index of external validation for overall survival(OS) was 0.832. Both internal and external calibration curves show a good agreement between nomogram prediction and actual survival.
Conclusion: In this study, we established age, tumour size, AJCC stage, tissue type, surgery and tumor extension as independent prognostic factors for high-grade chondrosarcoma and constructed a nomogram to predict 3- and 5-year survival rates for high-grade chondrosarcoma.
期刊介绍：
Journal of Orthopaedic Surgery is an open access peer-reviewed journal publishing original reviews and research articles on all aspects of orthopaedic surgery. It is the official journal of the Asia Pacific Orthopaedic Association.
The journal welcomes and will publish materials of a diverse nature, from basic science research to clinical trials and surgical techniques. The journal encourages contributions from all parts of the world, but special emphasis is given to research of particular relevance to the Asia Pacific region.
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