Clustering and pedestrian crashes prediction modelling: Amman case.

IF 2.3 4区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
Lina Shbeeb
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Pedestrian casualties are a severe domestic as well as international problem. This study analyses the spatial distribution of pedestrian casualties to define contributory factors and delineate the means for their prediction. Three years of crash data were collected along with other factors and analysed using kernel density estimation (KDE), spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I), cluster K-Means, spatial regression, and general linear regressions (GLM). Kernel density estimate defines a cluster of pedestrian deaths within 1250 meters. According to Moran's I, 17/22 attributes about casualties, road networks, demographics, and land use have positive values, indicating similar importance clustering. The spatial pattern of pedestrian casualties is random and insignificant and does not change with time. Casualties are negatively related to the surrounding attributes, indicating a tendency towards dispersion. A K-Means analysis of multiple variables revealed that when variables included in the clustering were higher, the variance explanation percentage was lower. In the multi-variable GLM assuming Poisson distribution, the road network length alone or with the house permits combined were the best predictors of casualties. Classic regressions were not significantly enhanced by spatial dimension, and none of the autoregressive coefficients were significant. The predictions from the Poisson-based GLM model are similar to the classic regressions.

聚类与行人碰撞预测建模:安曼案例。
行人伤亡是一个严重的国内和国际问题。本研究分析了行人伤亡的空间分布,以确定影响因素,并描述其预测方法。收集了三年的碰撞数据以及其他因素,并使用核密度估计(KDE)、空间自相关(Moran’s I)、聚类k均值、空间回归和一般线性回归(GLM)进行了分析。核密度估计定义了1250米范围内的行人死亡聚集。根据Moran的I, 17/22关于伤亡、道路网络、人口统计和土地使用的属性具有正值,表明相似的重要性聚类。行人伤亡的空间格局具有随机性和不显著性,不随时间变化。伤亡与周围属性呈负相关,表明有分散的趋势。多变量的K-Means分析显示,当聚类中包含的变量越高时,方差解释百分比越低。在假设泊松分布的多变量GLM中,单独的道路网络长度或与房屋许可相结合是伤亡的最佳预测因子。空间维度对经典回归没有显著增强,自回归系数均不显著。基于泊松的全球变暖模型的预测与经典回归相似。
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来源期刊
International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion
International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH-
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
13.00%
发文量
48
期刊介绍: International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion (formerly Injury Control and Safety Promotion) publishes articles concerning all phases of injury control, including prevention, acute care and rehabilitation. Specifically, this journal will publish articles that for each type of injury: •describe the problem •analyse the causes and risk factors •discuss the design and evaluation of solutions •describe the implementation of effective programs and policies The journal encompasses all causes of fatal and non-fatal injury, including injuries related to: •transport •school and work •home and leisure activities •sport •violence and assault
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