Rapid Estimation of Climate–Air Quality Interactions in Integrated Assessment Using a Response Surface Model

IF 6.7 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL
Sebastian D. Eastham*, Erwan Monier, Daniel Rothenberg, Sergey Paltsev and Noelle E. Selin, 
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Abstract

Air quality and climate change are substantial and linked sustainability challenges, and there is a need for improved tools to assess the implications of addressing these challenges together. Due to the high computational cost of accurately assessing these challenges, integrated assessment models (IAMs) used in policy development often use global- or regional-scale marginal response factors to calculate air quality impacts of climate scenarios. We bridge the gap between IAMs and high-fidelity simulation by developing a computationally efficient approach to quantify how combined climate and air quality interventions affect air quality outcomes, including capturing spatial heterogeneity and complex atmospheric chemistry. We fit individual response surfaces to high-fidelity model simulation output for 1525 locations worldwide under a variety of perturbation scenarios. Our approach captures known differences in atmospheric chemical regimes and can be straightforwardly implemented in IAMs, enabling researchers to rapidly estimate how air quality in different locations and related equity-based metrics will respond to large-scale changes in emission policy. We find that the sensitivity of air quality to climate change and air pollutant emission reductions differs in sign and magnitude by region, suggesting that calculations of “co-benefits” of climate policy that do not account for the existence of simultaneous air quality interventions can lead to inaccurate conclusions. Although reductions in global mean temperature are effective in improving air quality in many locations and sometimes yield compounding benefits, we show that the air quality impact of climate policy depends on air quality precursor emission stringency. Our approach can be extended to include results from higher-resolution modeling and also to incorporate other interventions toward sustainable development that interact with climate action and have spatially distributed equity dimensions.

Abstract Image

基于响应面模型的综合评估中气候-空气质量相互作用的快速估计
空气质量和气候变化是重大的、相互关联的可持续性挑战,需要改进工具来评估共同应对这些挑战的影响。由于准确评估这些挑战的计算成本很高,政策制定中使用的综合评估模型通常使用全球或区域范围的边际响应因子来计算气候情景对空气质量的影响。我们通过开发一种计算高效的方法来量化气候和空气质量综合干预措施如何影响空气质量结果,包括捕捉空间异质性和复杂的大气化学,从而弥合IAM和高保真模拟之间的差距。在各种扰动场景下,我们将全球1525个地点的单个响应面拟合为高保真度模型模拟输出。我们的方法捕捉到了大气化学状态的已知差异,可以直接在IAM中实施,使研究人员能够快速估计不同地点的空气质量和相关的基于公平的指标将如何应对排放政策的大规模变化。我们发现,空气质量对气候变化和空气污染物减排的敏感性因地区而异,这表明,如果不考虑同时存在空气质量干预措施,对气候政策“共同利益”的计算可能会导致不准确的结论。尽管全球平均气温的降低对改善许多地区的空气质量是有效的,有时还会产生复合效益,但我们表明,气候政策对空气质量的影响取决于空气质量前体排放的严格程度。我们的方法可以扩展到包括更高分辨率建模的结果,也可以包括与气候行动相互作用并具有空间分布公平维度的其他可持续发展干预措施。
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来源期刊
ACS Environmental Au
ACS Environmental Au 环境科学-
CiteScore
7.10
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
期刊介绍: ACS Environmental Au is an open access journal which publishes experimental research and theoretical results in all aspects of environmental science and technology both pure and applied. Short letters comprehensive articles reviews and perspectives are welcome in the following areas:Alternative EnergyAnthropogenic Impacts on Atmosphere Soil or WaterBiogeochemical CyclingBiomass or Wastes as ResourcesContaminants in Aquatic and Terrestrial EnvironmentsEnvironmental Data ScienceEcotoxicology and Public HealthEnergy and ClimateEnvironmental Modeling Processes and Measurement Methods and TechnologiesEnvironmental Nanotechnology and BiotechnologyGreen ChemistryGreen Manufacturing and EngineeringRisk assessment Regulatory Frameworks and Life-Cycle AssessmentsTreatment and Resource Recovery and Waste Management
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