Oceanic and atmospheric anomalies associated with extreme precipitation events in China 1983–2020

Abstract

Observed synoptic anomalies in connection with China’s extreme precipitation events/floods in the summers of 1982/83, 1997/98, 2010, 2014, 2015/16, and 2020 are studied. These events mainly occur within the middle and lower Yangtze basins. The dominant moisture source is the Northern Indian Ocean and the Southwestern Pacific Ocean of the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP). Both of these bodies of water have warmed since 1979. In East Asia, the strong land‐sea thermal contrast driven by global warming drives the increased East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation, which develops deep convective precipitation. The total precipitable water in the Indo-Pacific region has also been increasing since 1979. The intense southwest Indian monsoon transports moist air to the Yangtze basin in mid-June and forms the Meiyu (plum rain) front. Strengthened Okhotsk/Ural blocking highs in East and West Asia, as well as the Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the South Asian high (SAH) over south Eurasia, remain stationary for long periods and interact to exacerbate the precipitation. The western edge of the WPSH expands westward towards East Asia to transport moisture. To the north, the WPSH combines with the two blocking highs to trigger more rain. The intensified SAH expands eastward and merges with the extended WPSH to add rain. On the other hand, rainfall is modulated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), notably in relation to the super El Niño events in 1982–1983, 1997–1998, 2015–2016, and 2020. The research described in this paper highlights changes in the weather systems with warming and, in particular, the enormous and dominating impact of the warming and expanding IPWP on rainfall extremes. Improved seasonal forecasts and planning ahead will protect lives and livelihoods.