Opinion Evolution with Information Quality of Public Person and Mass Acceptance Threshold.

Abstract

Public persons are nodes with high attention to public events, and their opinions can directly affect the development on events. However, because of rationality, the followers' acceptance to the public persons' opinions will depend on the information trait on public persons' opinions and own comprehension. To study how different opinions of the public persons guide different followers, we build an opinion dynamics model, which would provide a theoretical method for public opinion management. Based on the classical bounded confidence model, we extract the information quality variables and individual trust threshold and introduce them to construct our two-stage opinion evolution model. And then in the simulation experiments, we analyze the different effects of opinion information quality, opinion release time, and frequency on public opinion by adjusting the different parameters. Finally, we added a case to compare real data, the data from classical model simulation and the data from improved model simulation to verify the effectiveness on our model. The research found that the more sufficient the argument and the more moderate the attitude, the more likely to guide the public opinion. If public person holds different opinions and different information quality, he should choose different time to present his opinion to achieve ideal guide effect. When public person holds neutral opinion and the information quality is relatively general, he/she can intervene in public opinion as soon as possible to control final public opinion; when public person holds extreme opinion and the information quality is relatively high, he/she can choose to express opinion after a certain period on public opinion evolution, which is conducive to improve the guidance effect on public opinion. The frequency of releasing opinions of public person consistently has a positive impact on the final public opinion.