Influencing factors of prognosis in children with pulmonary atresia with intact ventricle septum after transthoracic balloon dilation of pulmonary valve and construction of a nomograph prediction model.

Abstract

This study aimed to identify factors that affect the prognosis of children with pulmonary valve atresia and intact ventricular septum treated with transthoracic balloon dilation of the pulmonary valve. The study included 148 participants who were followed up for 5 years. Of these, 10 died, while 138 survived. Independent sample t-test and χ2 test were used to analyze clinical data of children in the death and survival groups. It was found that height, weight, body surface area, arterial oxygen saturation, degree of tricuspid regurgitation, pulmonary valve cross valve pressure difference, ICU length of stay, length of stay, reoperation intervention, and complications were statistically significant (P<0.05). ROC curve analysis of the measurement indicators with statistically significant differences showed that height, weight, body surface area, arterial oxygen saturation, ICU length of stay, and length of stay had AUCs ranging from 0.723 to 0.870. Logistic regression analysis revealed that the degree of tricuspid regurgitation, pulmonary valve cross valvular pressure difference, ICU length of stay, reoperation intervention, and complications were independent risk factors that affect the prognosis of patients with PA/IVS undergoing transthoracic balloon dilation of pulmonary valve. The study proposed a nomogram prediction model using R language software 4.0 "rms" package, which was validated using calibration curve and decision curve. The model had a C-index of 0.667 (95% CI: 0.643-0.786) and high degree of fit. This study provides clinicians with a prediction model to identify children with poor prognosis after treatment with transpulmonary valve balloon dilatation.           .