Prediction of violence: Part contagious disease, part unpredictable individual: Is a public health assessment approach an additional option and at what cost?

Abstract

On a population level, violence shares many similarities with communicable disease states and other public health issues. Therefore, there has been a push to apply public health interventions to the problem of societal violence and for some to even identify violence as the product of a disease state (e.g., changed brain). This conceptualization could lead to the development of new risk violence assessment tools and approaches predicated more on the public health model rather than existing instruments that have often been based on inpatient mental health populations or incarcerated populations. In this article, we will discuss aspects of legal obligation for risk violence “prediction/stratification”, the application of the public health communicable disease model to violence, as well as identify why it may not always translate to the individual with whom a clinician or forensic mental health evaluator interacts.