Cost dynamics of onshore wind energy in the context of China's carbon neutrality target

Abstract

Wind energy has become one of the most important measures for China to achieve its carbon neutrality goal. The spatial and temporal evolvement of economic competitiveness for wind energy becomes an important concern in shaping the decarbonization pathway in China. There has been an urgent need in power system planning to model the future dynamics of cost decline and supply potential for wind power in the context of carbon neutrality until 2060. Existing studies often fail to capture the rapid decline in the cost of wind power generation in recent years, and the prediction of wind power cost decline is more conservative than the reality. This study constructs an integrated model to evaluate the cost-competitiveness and grid parity potential of China's onshore wind electricity at fine spatial resolution with updated parameters. Results indicate that the total onshore wind potential amounts to 54.0 PWh. The average levelized cost of wind power is expected to decline from CNY 0.39 kWh⁻¹ in 2020 to CNY 0.30 and CNY 0.21 kWh⁻¹ in 2030 and 2060. 28.3%, 67.6%, and 97.6% of the technical potentials hold power costs lower than coal power in 2020, 2030, and 2060.