Taking theoretical risks in a world of directional predictions

Abstract

As Meehl (1978) observed, one major reason for the painfully slow progress of soft psychology is our field’s heavy reliance on directional predictions, which leads to feeble tests of theories. In the present commentary, I outline six ways of taking theoretical risks in a world of directional predictions: (1) constructive replication of findings, (2) generating multiple maximally independent predictions, (3) adherence to the total evidence rule, (4) discriminant validation of measures, (5) incremental validation of measures, and (6) according attention to higher-order personality dimensions.