Effects of recent minimum wage policies in California and nationwide: Results from a pre-specified analysis plan

Abstract

We analyze the impacts of recent city minimum wage increases in California and nationwide, following a pre-analysis plan (PAP) registered prior to the release of data covering two years of minimum wage increases. For California cities, we find a hint of negative employment effects. Nationally, we find some evidence of disemployment effects for teens, but not young adults or high school dropouts. City-specific analyses provide limited evidence of adverse effects on the share low-income, but the pooled city analysis does not; the national analysis generally finds no impact on the share low-income, except for reductions in the share near-poor, although that may at least partly reflect prior trends. All told, we view the results as providing neither strong evidence of substantial adverse effects of city minimum wages, nor strong evidence of substantial beneficial effects.