Modelling the Effect of Vaccination Program and Inter-state Travel in the Spread of COVID-19 in Malaysia

IF 1.4 4区生物学 Q4 MATHEMATICAL & COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY

Acta Biotheoretica Pub Date : 2022-11-17 DOI:10.1007/s10441-022-09453-3

Muhamad Hifzhudin Noor Aziz, Ahmad Dzulhilmi Ahmad Safaruddin, Nor Aishah Hamzah, Siti Suzlin Supadi, Zhou Yuhao, Muhamad Afiq Aziz

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Abstract

A modified version of the SEIR model with the effects of vaccination and inter-state movement is proposed to simulate the spread of COVID-19 in Malaysia. A mathematical analysis of the proposed model was performed to derive the basic reproduction number. To enhance the model’s forecasting capabilities, the model parameters were estimated using the Nelder–Mead simplex method by fitting the model outputs to the observed data. Our results showed a good fit between the model outputs and available data, where the model was then able to perform short-term predictions. In line with the rapid vaccination program, our model predicted that the COVID-19 cases in the country would decrease by the end of August. Furthermore, our findings indicated that relaxing travel restrictions from a highly vaccinated region to a low vaccinated region would result in an epidemic outbreak.

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模拟疫苗接种计划和州际旅行对COVID-19在马来西亚传播的影响

提出了一种带有疫苗接种和州际流动影响的SEIR模型的修改版本，以模拟COVID-19在马来西亚的传播。对所提出的模型进行了数学分析，得出了基本再现数。为了提高模型的预测能力，通过将模型输出与观测数据拟合，采用Nelder-Mead单纯形法估计模型参数。我们的结果表明，模型输出和可用数据之间的拟合很好，因此模型能够进行短期预测。根据快速疫苗接种计划，我们的模型预测，到8月底，该国的COVID-19病例将减少。此外，我们的研究结果表明，从高疫苗接种地区到低疫苗接种地区放松旅行限制将导致疫情爆发。

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来源期刊

Acta Biotheoretica 生物-生物学

CiteScore

2.70

自引率

7.70%

发文量

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： Acta Biotheoretica is devoted to the promotion of theoretical biology, encompassing mathematical biology and the philosophy of biology, paying special attention to the methodology of formation of biological theory. Papers on all kind of biological theories are welcome. Interesting subjects include philosophy of biology, biomathematics, computational biology, genetics, ecology and morphology. The process of theory formation can be presented in verbal or mathematical form. Moreover, purely methodological papers can be devoted to the historical origins of the philosophy underlying biological theories and concepts. Papers should contain clear statements of biological assumptions, and where applicable, a justification of their translation into mathematical form and a detailed discussion of the mathematical treatment. The connection to empirical data should be clarified. Acta Biotheoretica also welcomes critical book reviews, short comments on previous papers and short notes directing attention to interesting new theoretical ideas.