The Time-Trend of Multiple Sclerosis Incidence and Prevalence in Khuzestan Province, Iran

Abstract

Background: The prevalence and incidence of Multiple Sclerosis (MS) have increased in Iran. Objectives: This study aimed to observe the temporal trends and provide a predictive model in the prevalence and incidence of MS in Khuzestan Province, Iran. Methods: This cross-sectional study was performed from 2006 to 2019 in Khuzestan Province, Southwestern Iran, on 2676 patients registered in the Khuzestan Multiple Sclerosis Center. The simple exponential smoothing model was used to study the time trends and predict the prevalence and incidence of MS in 2020. Results: The mean(SD) age of the examined patients with MS was 31.40(8.94) years; while the mean(SD) age-incidence of MS was 29.19(9.16) years. The sex ratio (female to male) was measured as 3.05. The patients' prevalence and average annual incidences were 57.77 and 4.35per 100000 individuals from 2006 to 2019, respectively. The trend in the MS incidence has been upward with a very slight slope during the years 2006 to 2019. The slope of the increase from 2006 to 2019 was higher for women than men. Conclusions: The collected results suggested that Khuzestan Province is a high-risk area for MS; the prevalence and incidence of the disease are increasing, especially in women. We prognosticate a slight increase in the incidence of MS in the age group of 20 to 50 years. However, the prevalence of the disease in this age group was similar to 2019.