Asymmetric Price Transmission in the Cocoa Supply Chain in Indonesia

Q2 Social Sciences

Economia Agro-Alimentare Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI:10.3280/ecag2022oa12888

Ahmad Ridha, R. Masbar, Aliasuddin Aliasuddin, Vivi Silvia

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引用次数: 2

Abstract

This study investigates the asymmetric price transmission (APT) of global cocoa beans and cocoa pasta prices to farm prices. The cocoa pasta variable is a proxy for Indonesian processed cocoa industry products. We use monthly time series data from January 2007 to December 2020. The NARDL model was used to estimate the APT response behavior. The dummy variable (export cocoa bean tax) explains fluctuations in farm prices before and after the policy implementation. The results showed asymmetric cointegration between the global cocoa market and cocoa pasta prices moving towards farm cocoa prices in Indonesia. APT occurs in the short and long term with different significant levels for each variable. The increase (decrease) in the global market and cocoa pasta prices were transmitted asymmetrically in the short and long terms, except for the variable (PA-pos), which is not significant in the long term. We observe strong evidence of negative asymmetric price transmission. Negative price shocks (decreases) in global markets and cocoa pasta are more rapidly transmitted to farmer prices than positive price shocks. Adjustment prices occur in magnitude, speed, and sign. The high coefficient of negative asymmetric price transmission indicates the uncompetitive of Indonesia's supply-demand cocoa chain. At the same time, the cocoa bean export tax harms farm prices. The export tax policy has reduced farm prices by approximately 2.3%.

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印尼可可供应链中的不对称价格传导

本文研究了全球可可豆和可可面食价格对农产品价格的不对称价格传导(APT)。可可面食变量是印尼加工可可工业产品的代表。我们使用从2007年1月到2020年12月的月度时间序列数据。采用NARDL模型估计APT的响应行为。虚拟变量(可可豆出口税)解释了政策实施前后农产品价格的波动。结果显示，全球可可市场和可可面食价格之间的非对称协整关系正朝着印尼农场可可价格的方向发展。APT在短期和长期均有发生，各变量的显著性水平不同。全球市场和可可面食价格的上涨(下跌)在短期和长期内都是不对称的，除了变量(PA-pos)在长期内不显著。我们观察到负不对称价格传导的有力证据。全球市场和可可面食的负面价格冲击(下降)比正面价格冲击更迅速地传导到农民价格。调整价格有大小、速度和标志。高的负不对称价格传导系数表明印尼的可可供需链缺乏竞争力。与此同时，可可豆出口税损害了农产品价格。出口税收政策使农产品价格降低了约2.3%。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Economia Agro-Alimentare Social Sciences-Social Sciences (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

1.40

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

30 weeks

期刊介绍： Economia agro-alimentare/Food Economy is a triannual peer-reviewed scientific journal published by Franco Angeli Edizioni on behalf of the Italian Society of Agri-food Economics (SIEA), founded in 1996 by the then President of SIEA Fausto Cantarelli. It offers an international forum for the discussion and analysis of mono and interdisciplinary socio-economic, political, legal and technical issues, related to agricultural and food systems. It welcomes submissions of original papers focusing on agriculture, food, natural resources, safety, nutrition and health, including all processes and infrastructure involved in providing food to populations; as well as the processes, inputs and outputs involved in consumption and disposal of food and food-related items. Analyses also include social, political, economic and environmental contexts and human resource challenges. Submissions should be addressed to an international audience of researchers, practitioners, and policy makers, and they may consider local, national, or global scales.