Changes and trends of seasonal total rainfall in the province of Istanbul, Turkey

Journal of the Faculty of Forestry Istanbul University Pub Date : 2016-06-15 DOI:10.17099/JFFIU.30673

I. Yurtseven, Y. Serengil

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引用次数: 5

Abstract

Changes and trends of seasonal total rainfall in the province of Istanbul, Turkey Abstract: Several studies revealed that climate change can affect local and regional precipitation patterns. Long term trends and cycles in precipitation is important for the health of ecosystems in the region. The possible impacts in near future can affect the forest and water resources of Istanbul. In this study, daily, monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation analyses for the different meteorology stations were examined for the Istanbul province. Northern and southern different climatic conditions of Istanbul have been effective selection of the station. The Mann-Kendall test results showed that there is positive statistically significant trend in some meteorology stations. According to Mann-Kendall results the increased fall precipitation trend were found in Florya, Kirecburnu ve Kumkoy meteorology stations and decreased summer precipitation trend were found in Goztepe meteorology stations Keywords: Mann-Kendall trend analysis, precipitation time series, the regional precipitation reactions analysis, climate change Istanbul ilinde mevsimsel toplam yagislarin degisimleri ve egilimleri Ozet : Iklim degisikliginin bolgesel ve yoresel olcekte yagis rejimi uzerinde etkileri olabilecegi bircok arastirma ile ortaya konulmustur. Yagis serilerindeki uzun donemli yonelimler ve donguler yoredeki ekosistemlerin sagligi ve gelecegi acisindan buyuk onem arzetmektedir. Istanbul ilinde onumuzdeki donemde gerceklesebilecek etkiler ise hem su kaynaklari hem de ormanlar uzerinde onemli sonuclar ortaya cikarabilir. Bu calismada Istanbul iline ait farkli meteoroloji istasyonlarinin uzun donemli mevsimlik verileri arastirilmistir. Calismadaki amacimiz ileriye donuk tahminlerdeki belirsizlikleri belli oranda ortadan kaldirabilecek gecmise donuk veriler yardimiyla istatistiksel analizleri gerceklestirmektir. Istasyon seciminde Istanbul’un kirsal ve kentsel bolgelerindeki farkli iklim kosullari etkili olmustur. Mann-Kendall testi sonuclarina gore Florya, Kirecburnu ve Kumkoy Meteoroloji Istasyonlari’nda secilen sonbahar mevsimi yagislarinda, Goztepe Meteoroloji Istasyonu’nda ise yaz mevsimi yagislarinda istatistiksel anlamda artan bir trend bulunmustur. Anahtar kelimeler: Mann-Kendall trend analizi, yagis zaman serileri, iklim degisikligi Received (Gelis): 10.02.2016 - Revised (Duzeltme): 05.05.2016 - Accepted (Kabul): 24.05.2016 Cite (Atif): Yurtseven, I., Serengil, Y., 2017. Changes and trends of seasonal total rainfall in the province of Istanbul, Turkey. Journal of the Faculty of Forestry Istanbul University 67(1): 1-12. DOI: 10.17099/jffiu.30673

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土耳其伊斯坦布尔省季节总降雨量的变化和趋势

摘要:多项研究表明，气候变化可以影响局地和区域降水模式。降水的长期趋势和周期对该地区生态系统的健康至关重要。在不久的将来可能产生的影响会影响到伊斯坦布尔的森林和水资源。在这项研究中，对伊斯坦布尔省不同气象站的日、月、季和年降水分析进行了检查。伊斯坦布尔北部和南部不同的气候条件对该站进行了有效的选择。Mann-Kendall检验结果表明，部分气象站存在显著的正统计趋势。关键词:Mann-Kendall趋势分析，降水时间序列，区域降水反应分析，气候变化，伊斯坦布尔ilinde mevsimsel toplam, yagislarin, degisimleri, egilimleri Ozet;本论文主要研究了两种不同类型的植物，一种是天然植物，一种是天然植物，一种是天然植物，一种是天然植物。Yagis系列系列产品的性能指标为:1、产品的性能指标为:1、产品的性能指标为:1、产品的性能指标为:1、产品的性能指标为:1、产品的性能指标为:1、产品的性能指标为:1、产品的性能指标。伊斯坦布尔ilinde onumuzdeki donemde gerceklesebilecek etkiler伊势哼哼苏kaynaklari哼哼de ormanlar uzerinde onemli sonuclar ortaya cikarabilir。但是，伊斯坦布尔气象台的气象台的气象台的气象台的气象台的气象台的气象台的气象台的气象台的气象台的气象台的气象台的气象台的气象台的气象台的气象台的气象台的气象台。Calismadaki amacimiz ileriye donuk tahminledeki belirislikliki belli oranda ortadan kaldiabilecek gessime donuk veriler yardimila statisticksel analysizeri gerklestmektir。istashion secsecin Istanbul 'un kirsal ve kentsel bolgelerindeki farkli iklim kosullari etkili olmusur。Mann-Kendall测试了Florya, kirechnu, Kumkoy Meteoroloji Istasyonlari，并选择了sonbahar mevsimi yagislari, Goztepe Meteoroloji istasyoni，以及Goztepe mevsimi yagislari统计数据，并分析了该数据的趋势。anhtar kelimeler: Mann-Kendall trend analizer, yagis zaman serileri, iklim degisikligi收稿(Gelis): 10.02.2016 -修稿(Duzeltme): 05.05.2016 -收稿(Kabul): 24.05.2016引用(Atif): Yurtseven, I.， Serengil, Y.， 2017。土耳其伊斯坦布尔省季节总降雨量的变化和趋势。伊斯坦布尔大学林业学院学报，67(1):1-12。DOI: 10.17099 / jffiu.30673

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Journal of the Faculty of Forestry Istanbul University

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