Assessment of Climate Changing Effect on Precipitation and Temperature of Tehran

Abstract

In this study, we have studied the effect of climate change on precipitation and temperature in Tehran. Climate change affects many aspects of human activity and this effect is greater in large cities such as Tehran so this is an important issue and the main purpose of this study is to investigate the possible changes in the two main parameters related to climate elements (temperature and precipitation). For the coming years, the Tehran city is based on the past climate of this city. To investigate the effect of climate change on precipitation and temperature in Tehran, 30 year statistics and information of 2 stations (Mehrabad and Doshan Tape) in relation to the parameters of precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature based on the daily scale were received from the Meteorological Organization. After the initial statistical corrections on the data based on the Mann-Kendall method for the period 1982 to 2012, we examined the significant trend of the data (incremental and decremental). Then we used the SDSM model to predict the situation from 2015 to 2045. The results of this study showed that based on the effects of climate change in Tehran for Mehrabad and Doshan Tappeh stations, the city will face a decrease in precipitation in the future. Also the minimum and maximum temperatures in Tehran (which has increased significantly since 2000) will increase by 2045. This shows the trend of increasing the minimum and maximum temperatures until 2045.