COVID-19 and the 1918 influenza pandemics: a concise overview and lessons from the past

Abstract

Abstract The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), was first reported in December, 2019, in Wuhan, China. Even the public health sector experts could not anticipate that the virus would spread rapidly to create the worst worldwide crisis in more than a century. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a public health emergency on January 30, 2020, but it was not until March 11, 2020 that the WHO declared it a global pandemic. The epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 is different from the SARS coronavirus outbreak in 2002 and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) in 2012; therefore, neither SARS nor MERS could be used as a suitable model for foreseeing the future of the current pandemic. The influenza pandemic of 1918 could be referred to in order to understand and control the COVID-19 pandemic. Although influenza and the SARS-CoV-2 are from different families of viruses, they are similar in that both silently attacked the world and the societal and political responses to both pandemics have been very much alike. Previously, the 1918 influenza pandemic and unpredictability of the second wave caused distress among people as the first wave of that outbreak (so-called Spanish flu) proved to be relatively mild compared to a much worse second wave, followed by smaller waves. As of April, 2021, the second wave of COVID-19 has occurred around the globe, and future waves may also be expected, if the total population of the world is not vaccinated. This article aims to highlight the key similarities and differences in both pandemics. Similarly, lessons from the previous pan-demics and various possibilities for the future course of COVID-19 are also highlighted.