Simulation and analysis of the power output fluctuation of photovoltaic modules based on NREL one-minute irradiance data

Abstract

In this paper, the power output of one PV module was simulated based on Rabl's model, Lorenzo's model, NREL one-minute irradiance data and other meteorological data, and three fluctuation indexes named AFM, RFC, and MFI were proposed and applied to the fluctuation analysis of one PV module's power output. The result of simulation indicates that the fluctuation of power output of PV modules was strongly influenced by the fluctuant irradiance derived from changes of the meteorology. The results of fluctuation analysis show that the power fluctuation conditions of PV modules can be expressed by the three indexes: MFI index can represent the energy size of the power fluctuation to a certain extent, the peaks of AFM curve show good consistency compared to the sharply changing locations of power curve, the value of RFC index represents the degree of uncertainty of PV power fluctuations.