{"title":"Synoptic and hydrological analysis of a flood event","authors":"L. Ferraris , O. Reale , B. Turato","doi":"10.1016/S1464-1909(01)00065-X","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This is a four-step study to analyze a flood event which occurred over Friuli (north-eastern Italy) during October 1998. The first step is a synoptic analysis, in which the importance of moisture originated in the tropical Atlantic, and carried towards the Mediterranean by the remnants of a former tropical system, is emphasized. The second step analyzes the numerical forecast, as performed by the NCEP Medium range forecast (MRF) global model and by the limited area model called <em>Eta model</em><span><sup>1</sup></span> (<span>Black, 1994</span>; <span>Mesinger, 1984</span>; <span>Mesinger et al., 1988</span>), highlighting the importance of the large scale forcing. The third step involves multifractal modeling (<span>Deidda et al., 1999</span>) on the rainfall forecast for two different simulations. Finally, the hydrological effects over land, produced by the predicted precipitation, are compared with the observed effects. The results suggest the importance of the correct representation of the large scale forcing for the regional models, and the crucial contribution of multifractal modeling to reproduce the spatial variability of the rainfall on a hydrologically significant scale.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101025,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Part B: Hydrology, Oceans and Atmosphere","volume":"26 9","pages":"Pages 655-661"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2001-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/S1464-1909(01)00065-X","citationCount":"11","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Part B: Hydrology, Oceans and Atmosphere","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S146419090100065X","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 11
Abstract
This is a four-step study to analyze a flood event which occurred over Friuli (north-eastern Italy) during October 1998. The first step is a synoptic analysis, in which the importance of moisture originated in the tropical Atlantic, and carried towards the Mediterranean by the remnants of a former tropical system, is emphasized. The second step analyzes the numerical forecast, as performed by the NCEP Medium range forecast (MRF) global model and by the limited area model called Eta model1 (Black, 1994; Mesinger, 1984; Mesinger et al., 1988), highlighting the importance of the large scale forcing. The third step involves multifractal modeling (Deidda et al., 1999) on the rainfall forecast for two different simulations. Finally, the hydrological effects over land, produced by the predicted precipitation, are compared with the observed effects. The results suggest the importance of the correct representation of the large scale forcing for the regional models, and the crucial contribution of multifractal modeling to reproduce the spatial variability of the rainfall on a hydrologically significant scale.
这是一个四步研究，分析1998年10月发生在弗留利(意大利东北部)的洪水事件。第一步是天气分析，其中强调起源于热带大西洋的湿气的重要性，并由前热带系统的残余带到地中海。第二步分析数值预报，如NCEP中期预报(MRF)全球模式和称为Eta model1的有限区域模式(Black, 1994;情况下,1984;Mesinger et al.， 1988)，强调了大尺度强迫的重要性。第三步涉及多重分形建模(Deidda et al.， 1999)对两种不同模拟的降雨预报。最后，将预测降水产生的陆地水文效应与观测效应进行了比较。结果表明，正确表征大尺度强迫对区域模式的重要性，以及多重分形模式对再现水文显著尺度上降雨空间变异性的重要贡献。
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