Short term load forecasting for small scale power system using fuzzy logic

Abstract

Load forecasting has an important role in planning and operations in power generation plant. Many new forecasting systems have been presented and proposed in recent years. Gas District Cooling (GDC) plant was built to supply electricity and chilled water for Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS (UTP). It operates on island operation during normal mode with utility company supply on hot standby mode. The plant has two generation units rated at 4.2 MW each, with a maximum generation capacity of 8.4 MW. In this paper, a practical short term load forecasting (STLF) method for UTP is presented. In the proposed method, a fuzzy logic approach was used and STLF model was designed based on UTP 2008 electricity demand data. The proposed model was tested with actual load data for January till June 2009 period. The test results show that the mean absolute percentage error of 4.59%.