Higher-Order Evidence and the Dynamics of Self-Location: An Accuracy-Based Argument for Calibrationism.

IF 0.8 2区哲学 0 PHILOSOPHY

ERKENNTNIS Pub Date : 2024-01-01 Epub Date: 2022-08-27 DOI:10.1007/s10670-022-00589-9

Brett Topey

引用次数: 0

Abstract

The thesis that agents should calibrate their beliefs in the face of higher-order evidence-i.e., should adjust their first-order beliefs in response to evidence suggesting that the reasoning underlying those beliefs is faulty-is sometimes thought to be in tension with Bayesian approaches to belief update: in order to obey Bayesian norms, it's claimed, agents must remain steadfast in the face of higher-order evidence. But I argue that this claim is incorrect. In particular, I motivate a minimal constraint on a reasonable treatment of the evolution of self-locating beliefs over time and show that calibrationism is compatible with any generalized Bayesian approach that respects this constraint. I then use this result to argue that remaining steadfast isn't the response to higher-order evidence that maximizes expected accuracy.

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高阶证据与自我定位的动力：基于精度的校准论证》。

代理人应该在高阶证据面前校准他们的信念--也就是说，应该在有证据表明这些信念的推理有误时调整他们的一阶信念--这一论点有时被认为与贝叶斯信念更新方法相冲突：据称，为了遵守贝叶斯规范，代理人必须在高阶证据面前保持坚定。但我认为这种说法是不正确的。具体而言，我提出了合理处理自我定位信念随时间演变的最小约束，并证明校准主义与任何尊重这一约束的广义贝叶斯方法都是兼容的。然后，我用这一结果来论证，保持坚定并不是对高阶证据做出最大化预期准确性的回应。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

ERKENNTNIS PHILOSOPHY-

CiteScore

2.10

自引率

11.10%

发文量

116

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