Gambling on the Monsoon in the Indian Desert

Abstract

In the desert area of Rajasthan, people have been betting money on when and how much it will rain during the monsoon for centuries. Despite state investment in forecasting technologies in India, rain bettors do not believe official weather data can predict the precise timing, volume, or location of rain. They instead observe the sky and share real-time information via social networks. Ethnographic research on weather prediction has focused on farmers’ expertise and information relevant for agriculture. Rain betting highlights other monsoon patterns in northwest India, especially sudden shifts in cloud direction and speed. It also foregrounds a creativity around weather uncertainties that, like weather derivatives trading, is about pursuit of profit through active ongoing engagement with weather risks. Rain betting, I argue, is a form of vernacular speculation in futures in an area where people are increasingly giving up farming for more profitable work.