Prediction of the Potential Distribution of Drosophila suzukii on Madeira Island Using the Maximum Entropy Modeling

IF 3.3 2区农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY

Agriculture-Basel Pub Date : 2023-09-06 DOI:10.3390/agriculture13091764

Fabrício Lopes Macedo, C. Ragonezi, Fábio Reis, José G. R. de Freitas, David Horta Lopes, António Miguel Franquinho Aguiar, Délia Cravo, Miguel A. A. Pinheiro de Carvalho

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Abstract

Drosophila suzukii is one of the main pests that attack soft-skinned fruits and cause significant economic damage worldwide. Madeira Island (Portugal) is already affected by this pest. The present work aimed to investigate the potential distribution of D. suzukii on Madeira Island to better understand the limits of its geographical distribution on the island using the Maximum Entropy modeling (MaxEnt). The resultant model provided by MaxEnt was rated as regular discrimination with the area under the curve (AUC, 0.7–0.8). Upon scrutinizing the environmental variables with the greatest impact on the distribution of D. suzukii, altitude emerged as the dominant contributor, with the highest percentage (71.2%). Additionally, elevations ranging from 0 to 500 m were identified as appropriate for the species distribution. With the results of the model, it becomes possible to understand/predict which locations will be most suitable for the establishment of the analyzed pest and could be further applied not only for D. suzukii but also for other species that hold the potential for substantial economic losses in this insular region.

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利用最大熵模型预测马德拉岛铃木果蝇的潜在分布

铃木果蝇是攻击软皮水果的主要害虫之一，在世界范围内造成重大经济损失。马德拉岛(葡萄牙)已经受到这种害虫的影响。本研究旨在利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)研究铃木氏霉在马德拉岛的潜在分布，以更好地了解其在马德拉岛地理分布的局限性。MaxEnt提供的结果模型被评为具有曲线下面积(AUC, 0.7-0.8)的规则判别。综合分析对铃木夜蛾分布影响最大的环境变量，海拔对铃木夜蛾分布的影响最大(71.2%)。此外，海拔0 ~ 500 m是适宜的物种分布范围。利用该模型的结果，可以了解/预测哪些地点最适合建立所分析的有害生物，并可以进一步应用于铃木夜蛾和其他可能对该岛屿地区造成重大经济损失的物种。

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来源期刊

Agriculture-Basel Agricultural and Biological Sciences-Food Science

CiteScore

4.90

自引率

13.90%

发文量

1793

审稿时长

11 weeks

期刊介绍： Agriculture (ISSN 2077-0472) is an international and cross-disciplinary scholarly and scientific open access journal on the science of cultivating the soil, growing, harvesting crops, and raising livestock. We will aim to look at production, processing, marketing and use of foods, fibers, plants and animals. The journal Agriculturewill publish reviews, regular research papers, communications and short notes, and there is no restriction on the length of the papers. Our aim is to encourage scientists to publish their experimental and theoretical research in as much detail as possible. Full experimental and/or methodical details must be provided for research articles.