Calculation of risk costs in construction projects

Stefanie Brokbals, Vincent Wapelhorst, Ivan Čadež
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Abstract

As early as 1971, Schubert made a first contribution to the consideration of risks during the execution of construction projects. In addition to that, he was first to introduce elements of the risk management process to the construction management literature in Germany. By the use of an empirical study of the probability of risk occurrence and the cost amount by risk occurrence, Schubert made among others a statement about the importance of the risks depending on the amount of the risk costs. In an updated study for building construction projects with construction costs ≤2.5 million € and unit price contracts applying the VOB/B primarily the altered risk evaluations are shown; it needs to be emphasized that the sum of the determined risk costs corresponds to Schubert's results. Furthermore, with a variation of the characteristic attributes (response options) of the probability of risk occurrence and the cost amount by risk occurrence, it can be displayed that the risk costs during the execution of building construction projects are even considerably higher. Additionally, a probabilistic risk cost calculation — applying the Monte Carlo method — is used to reveal the bandwidth of risk costs. It can be pointed out that the risk costs range between 2.71% and 8.67% of the construction costs. The results could serve as a benchmark for contractors during the tender calculation to determine the amount of risk costs depending for example, on the market situation, the company-specific risk disposition as well as strategic considerations.

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建设项目风险成本的计算
早在1971年,舒伯特就首次提出了在建筑项目执行过程中考虑风险的观点。除此之外,他是第一个将风险管理过程的要素引入德国建筑管理文献的人。通过对风险发生的概率和风险发生的成本金额的实证研究,舒伯特除其他外,提出了风险的重要性取决于风险成本的金额。在建筑成本≤250万欧元的建筑项目和单价合同的最新研究中,主要应用VOB/B,显示了改变的风险评估;需要强调的是,确定的风险成本的总和与舒伯特的结果相对应。此外,随着风险发生概率和成本金额的特征属性(响应选项)随风险发生的变化,可以看出,建筑建设项目执行过程中的风险成本甚至更高。此外,应用蒙特卡罗方法进行概率风险成本计算,揭示了风险成本的带宽。可以指出,风险成本占工程造价的比例在2.71% ~ 8.67%之间。这些结果可以作为承包商在投标计算时的基准,根据市场情况、公司具体的风险处置以及战略考虑来确定风险成本的数量。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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