Estimating warfare-related civilian mortality in the early modern period: Evidence from the Low Countries, 1620–99

IF 2.6 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Bram van Besouw, Daniel R. Curtis
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Early modern warfare in Western Europe exposed civilian populations to violence, hardship, and disease. Despite limited empirical evidence, the ensuing mortality effects are regularly invoked by economic historians to explain patterns of economic development. Using newly collected data on adult burials and war events in the seventeenth-century Low Countries, we estimate early modern war-driven mortality in localities close to military activity. We find a clear and significant general mortality effect consistent with the localized presence of diseases. During years with major epidemic disease outbreaks, we demonstrate a stronger and more widely spreading mortality effect. However, war-driven mortality increases during epidemic years are of similar relative magnitude is those in non-epidemic war years. Given the omnipresence of warfare in the seventeenth-century Low Countries, war-driven mortality was remarkably constant rather than a sharp discontinuity. The economic impact of warfare likely played out over the long term rather than driven by sudden large mortality spikes creating rapid structural change.

估计近代早期与战争有关的平民死亡率:来自低地国家的证据,1620 - 1699
西欧早期的现代战争使平民百姓面临暴力、困苦和疾病。尽管经验证据有限,但随之而来的死亡率效应经常被经济历史学家用来解释经济发展模式。利用新近收集的关于17世纪低地国家成人埋葬和战争事件的数据,我们估计了现代早期战争导致的靠近军事活动地区的死亡率。我们发现与局部疾病存在一致的明确和显著的一般死亡率效应。在重大流行病暴发的年份,我们显示出更强和更广泛传播的死亡率效应。然而,在流行病年,战争造成的死亡率增加的相对幅度与非流行病战争年相似。考虑到17世纪低地国家战争的无所不在,战争导致的死亡率是非常稳定的,而不是急剧的间断。战争对经济的影响可能是长期的,而不是由死亡率突然大幅上升造成的快速结构变化所驱动的。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.50
自引率
8.70%
发文量
27
期刊介绍: Explorations in Economic History provides broad coverage of the application of economic analysis to historical episodes. The journal has a tradition of innovative applications of theory and quantitative techniques, and it explores all aspects of economic change, all historical periods, all geographical locations, and all political and social systems. The journal includes papers by economists, economic historians, demographers, geographers, and sociologists. Explorations in Economic History is the only journal where you will find "Essays in Exploration." This unique department alerts economic historians to the potential in a new area of research, surveying the recent literature and then identifying the most promising issues to pursue.
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