Property value capture for development of mass rapid transit: Case study from Hanoi

Akihiro Iida , Thi Mai Chi Nguyen , Le Binh Phan , Hironori Kato
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Abstract

Property value capture is expected to financially support investments in mass rapid transit (MRT) in many developing countries where conventional public funding is insufficient to meet the local demand. This study presents a case study to examine the financial feasibility of developing and operating a new metro line through property value capture and land-use control in Hanoi. First, property prices are estimated with local data for both residential and office properties, using hedonic price models. Next, a travel demand model, including trip generation and attraction, trip distribution, and travel mode choice sub-models, is estimated with person trip survey data, following a conventional four-step model framework. Subsequently, multiple scenarios are built for a hypothetical investment in an MRT line in Hanoi. The scenarios are assumed considering socio-demographics and transportation infrastructure in the context of new taxation levied on local properties near MRT stations and land-use controls with respect to population and employment to increase their densities near MRT stations. The estimated models are applied to each scenario to estimate the expected financial viability of MRT development and operation. The results reveal that the property value capture and land-use control could significantly improve the operator's profitability.

大规模快速交通发展的物业价值获取:河内案例研究
在传统的公共资金不足以满足当地需求的许多发展中国家,房地产价值捕获预计将为大规模快速交通(MRT)投资提供资金支持。本研究提出了一个案例研究,以检查在河内通过财产价值捕获和土地使用控制开发和运营一条新的地铁线路的财务可行性。首先,使用享乐价格模型,根据当地住宅和办公物业的数据估算房地产价格。其次,根据个人旅行调查数据,按照传统的四步模型框架,估计了一个旅行需求模型,包括旅行产生和吸引力、旅行分布和旅行模式选择子模型。随后,为河内地铁线路的假设投资建立了多个场景。这些情景的假设考虑了社会人口统计学和交通基础设施的背景,即对地铁站附近的当地财产征收新税,以及对人口和就业的土地使用控制,以增加地铁站附近的人口和就业密度。估计模型应用于每个情景,以估计捷运发展和运营的预期财务可行性。结果表明,物业价值捕获和土地利用控制可以显著提高经营者的盈利能力。
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