Comment on “Temperature and Decisions: Evidence from 207,000 Court Cases”

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

American Economic Journal-Applied Economics Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI:10.1257/app.20200118

Holger Spamann

引用次数: 1

Abstract

Heyes and Saberian (2019b) estimate from 2000–2004 data that outdoor temperature reduces US immigration judges’ propensity to grant asylum. This estimate is the result of coding and data errors and of sample selection. Correcting the errors reduces the point estimate by two-thirds, with a wide 95 percent confidence interval straddling zero. Enlarging the sample to 1990–2019 flips the point estimate’s sign and rules out the effect size reported by Heyes and Saberian with very high confidence. An analysis of all criminal sentencing decisions by US federal district judges from 1992 to 2003 yields no evidence of temperature or other weather effects either. (JEL K37, K41, Q54)

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评《温度与判决:来自20.7万个法庭案件的证据》

Heyes和Saberian (2019b)根据2000-2004年的数据估计，室外温度降低了美国移民法官批准庇护的倾向。这种估计是编码和数据错误以及样本选择的结果。修正误差使点估计减少了三分之二，95%的置信区间跨越零。将样本扩大到1990-2019年将点估计的符号翻转，并以非常高的置信度排除了Heyes和Saberian报告的效应大小。对1992年至2003年美国联邦地区法官做出的所有刑事判决的分析也没有发现气温或其他天气影响的证据。(jel k37, k41, q54)

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

American Economic Journal-Applied Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

9.10

自引率

1.60%

发文量

期刊介绍： American Economic Journal: Applied Economics publishes papers covering a range of topics in applied economics, with a focus on empirical microeconomic issues. In particular, we welcome papers on labor economics, development microeconomics, health, education, demography, empirical corporate finance, empirical studies of trade, and empirical behavioral economics.