The Effect of Domestic Consumption on Natural Rubber Farmgate Price in Indonesia

Q2 Social Sciences

Agraris Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development Research Pub Date : 2022-12-28 DOI:10.18196/agraris.v8i2.12480

Penggawa Pietra Pramananda, A. Rifin, D. Nauly

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Abstract

The decline in natural rubber farmgate prices in recent years directly impacted Indonesia’s natural rubber market. In response to this phenomenon, the government plans to increase natural rubber domestic consumption to raise Indonesia’s rubber price. This study aimed to determine the effect of increasing natural rubber domestic consumption on natural rubber farmgate prices and analyze other factors those influence it. The Error Correction Model was used to identify the variables that significantly affect Indonesia’s natural rubber farmgate price. The data used in this study were monthly data from January 2012 to December 2017. Results showed that natural rubber domestic consumption did not significantly affect the Indonesia natural rubber farmgate price. However, in the long run, Indonesia’s natural rubber farmgate price was influenced by the previous period of Indonesia’s natural rubber prices, world natural rubber prices, world crude oil prices, and exchange rates. While in the short run, Indonesia’s natural rubber farmgate price was influenced by the previous period of Indonesia’s natural rubber prices, world natural rubber prices, and exchange rate.

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国内消费对印尼天然橡胶农场价格的影响

近年来天然橡胶农场价格的下降直接影响了印尼的天然橡胶市场。针对这一现象，政府计划增加国内天然橡胶消费量，以提高印尼橡胶价格。本研究旨在确定天然橡胶国内消费量增加对天然橡胶农场价格的影响，并分析影响天然橡胶农场价格的其他因素。误差修正模型用于识别显著影响印尼天然橡胶农场价格的变量。本研究使用的数据为2012年1月至2017年12月的月度数据。结果表明，国内天然橡胶消费量对印尼天然橡胶养殖场价格影响不显著。但从长期来看，印尼天然橡胶农场价格受到印尼前一时期天然橡胶价格、世界天然橡胶价格、世界原油价格和汇率的影响。而在短期内，印尼天然橡胶农场价格受到印尼前一时期天然橡胶价格、世界天然橡胶价格和汇率的影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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