Recent Decline in Antarctic Sea Ice Cover From 2016 to 2022: Insights From Satellite Observations, Argo Floats, and Model Reanalysis

IF 2 4区 地球科学
Kshitija Suryawanshi, B. Jena, C. C. Bajish, N. Anilkumar
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Ever since the abrupt drop in Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) began in spring of 2016, as opposed to its consistent growth (1.95% decade–1 from 1979 to 2015), the SIE in the satellite era has reached record lows in 2017 and 2022. From spring 2016, the satellite-based SIE remained consistently lower than the long-term mean, with the trend dropping to 0.11% decade–1 from 1979 to 2022. The top record lowest SIE years were observed from 2016 to 2022, corresponding to the warmest years dating back to 1979. With this background, the rare features of Antarctic polynyas reoccurred frequently and the west Antarctic Peninsula remained ice-free throughout 2022. Recently, the SIE dropped to a record low in June 2022, July 2022, August 2022, January 2023, and February 2023, which were 13.67%, 9.91%, 6.79%, 39.29%, 39.56% below the long-term mean value, respectively for months described above. We find that the observed decline in SIE during 2016–2022 occurred due to the combined influences from the intensification of atmospheric zonal waves with enhanced poleward transport of warm-moist air and anomalous warming in the Southern Ocean mixed layer (>1°C). Although the sudden sea ice decline in spring of 2016 occurred corresponding to the transitional climate shift from IPO– (Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, 2000–2014) to IPO+ (2014–2016), the recent decline after 2016 occurred in a dominant IPO– and Southern Annular Mode (SAM+). CMIP6 models showed a consistent decrease in ensemble-mean SIE from 1979 to 2022. The model trend exhibits similarities to the recent declining trend in SIE from satellite observations since 2016, suggesting a possible shift towards a warmer climatic regime.
2016年至2022年南极海冰覆盖的近期下降:来自卫星观测、Argo浮标和模型再分析的见解
自2016年春季南极海冰面积(SIE)开始急剧下降以来,与1979年至2015年的持续增长(1.95%)相反,卫星时代的SIE在2017年和2022年创下历史新低。从2016年春季开始,基于卫星的SIE持续低于长期平均值,1979 - 2022年的趋势降至0.11%。2016年至2022年是全球气温最低的年份,与1979年以来最热的年份相对应。在这样的背景下,南极冰礁的罕见特征频繁重现,南极半岛西部在整个2022年保持无冰状态。最近,上证综指在2022年6月、2022年7月、2022年8月、2023年1月和2023年2月分别跌至历史低点,较长期均值分别低13.67%、9.91%、6.79%、39.29%和39.56%。2016-2022年观测到的SIE下降是由于大气纬向波增强,暖湿空气向极地输送增强和南大洋混合层异常增温(>1°C)共同影响的结果。虽然2016年春季海冰的突然减少与气候从IPO - (Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, 2000-2014)向IPO+(2014-2016)的过渡相对应,但2016年之后海冰的减少主要发生在IPO -和南环模(SAM+)中。CMIP6模式显示,1979 - 2022年的整体平均SIE持续下降。模式趋势与2016年以来卫星观测显示的最近SIE下降趋势相似,表明可能向更温暖的气候状态转变。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.00
自引率
5.00%
发文量
21
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography along with its sister journal Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology, are the international, peer-reviewed journals of the International Meteorological Institute in Stockholm, an independent non-for-profit body integrated into the Department of Meteorology at the Faculty of Sciences of Stockholm University, Sweden. Aiming to promote the exchange of knowledge about meteorology from across a range of scientific sub-disciplines, the two journals serve an international community of researchers, policy makers, managers, media and the general public. Original research papers comprise the mainstay of Tellus A. Review articles, brief research notes, and letters to the editor are also welcome. Special issues and conference proceedings are published from time to time. The scope of Tellus A spans dynamic meteorology, physical oceanography, data assimilation techniques, numerical weather prediction, climate dynamics and climate modelling.
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