Rankings of extreme and widespread dry and wet events in the Iberian Peninsula between 1901 and 2016

M. Liberato, I. Montero, C. Gouveia, A. Russo, A. Ramos, R. Trigo
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引用次数: 4

Abstract

Abstract. Extensive, long-standing dry and wet episodes are two of the most frequent climatic extreme events in the Iberian Peninsula. Here, a method for ranking regional extremes of persistent, widespread drought and wet events is presented, considering different timescales. The method is based on the multi-scalar Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) gridded dataset for the Iberian Peninsula. Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data are used to compute the SPEI between 1901 and 2016 by means of a log-logistic probability distribution function. The potential evapotranspiration (PET) is computed using the Penman–Monteith equation. The ranking classification method is based on the assessment of the magnitude of an event, which is obtained after considering both the area affected by the respective dryness or wetness – defined by SPEI values over a certain threshold – and its intensity in each grid point. A sensitivity analysis of the impact of different thresholds used to define dry and wet events is also performed. For both the dry and wet periods, this simple yet robust tool allows for the identification and ranking of well-known regional extremes of persistent, extensive dry and wet periods at different timescales. A comprehensive dataset of rankings of the most extreme, prolonged, widespread dry and wet periods in the Iberian Peninsula is presented for aggregated timescales of 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. Results show that no region in the Iberian Peninsula is more prone to the occurrence of any of these long-term (dry and/or wet) extreme events. Finally, it is highlighted that the application of this methodology to other domains and periods represents an important tool for extensive, long-standing, extreme event assessment worldwide.
1901年至2016年伊比利亚半岛极端和广泛的干湿事件排名
摘要广泛、长期的干旱和潮湿事件是伊比利亚半岛最常见的两个极端气候事件。本文提出了考虑不同时间尺度的区域性持续大范围旱涝事件极值排序方法。该方法基于伊比利亚半岛多标量标准化降水蒸散发指数(SPEI)网格数据集。利用气候研究单位(CRU)的数据,采用同源logistic概率分布函数计算了1901 - 2016年的SPEI。利用Penman-Monteith方程计算了潜在蒸散量(PET)。排序分类方法基于对事件震级的评估,该评估是在考虑了各自的干燥或湿度(由特定阈值的SPEI值定义)及其在每个网格点上的强度之后获得的。还对用于定义干湿事件的不同阈值的影响进行了敏感性分析。对于干湿期,这个简单而强大的工具允许在不同的时间尺度上识别和排序众所周知的区域极端的持续、广泛的干湿期。本文以6个月、12个月、18个月和24个月为时间尺度,对伊比利亚半岛最极端、最长、最广泛的干湿期进行了综合排名。结果表明,伊比利亚半岛没有哪个地区更容易发生这些长期(干/湿)极端事件。最后,本文强调,该方法在其他领域和时期的应用代表了广泛的、长期的、全球极端事件评估的重要工具。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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