Too Old or Too Young – Does Population Ageing Matter for Inflation?

International Journal of Economics and Management Pub Date : 2023-04-14 DOI:10.47836/ijeam.17.1.07

Shi EN MA, Tuck Cheong Tang

引用次数: 1

Abstract

This study ascertains the impact of population ageing on inflation more comprehensively by an unbalanced panel data of 125 countries spanning between 1996 and 2019. This study contributes a more generalized evidence of the impact of population ageing, and institutional quality on inflation region-wise. The control variables are those conventionally employed in explaining the inflation behaviour, namely real GDP, real interest rate, broad money growth, and imports. The empirical results are based on the panel fixed effects model by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimator with Cross-section Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE). This study finds that population ageing is deflationary. However, higher inflation is associated with increases in young dependents. The mediating effect of good institution on ageing to inflation is deflationary, while opposite holds given a weak institution. These findings vary among the seven different geographical regions. Indeed, this study is feasible for policymakers from both monetary and fiscal perspectives as well as social security.

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太老还是太年轻——人口老龄化对通货膨胀有影响吗?

本研究通过1996年至2019年125个国家的不平衡面板数据，更全面地确定了人口老龄化对通货膨胀的影响。本研究为人口老龄化和制度质量对区域通货膨胀的影响提供了更广泛的证据。控制变量是那些通常用来解释通胀行为的变量，即实际GDP、实际利率、广义货币增长和进口。实证结果基于面板固定效应模型，采用截面看似无关回归(SUR)面板修正标准误差(PCSE)的普通最小二乘(OLS)估计。这项研究发现，人口老龄化是通货紧缩。然而，较高的通货膨胀与年轻受抚养人的增加有关。良好制度对老龄化对通胀的中介作用是通缩，而薄弱制度的中介作用则相反。这些发现在七个不同的地理区域有所不同。事实上，无论从货币和财政角度，还是从社会保障角度，这项研究对政策制定者来说都是可行的。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Economics and Management Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)

CiteScore

1.80

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The journal focuses on economics and management issues. The main subjects for economics cover national macroeconomic issues, international economic issues, interactions of national and regional economies, microeconomics and macroeconomics policies. The journal also considers thought-leading substantive research in the finance discipline. The main subjects for management include management decisions, Small Medium Enterprises (SME) practices, corporate social policies, digital marketing strategies and strategic management. The journal emphasises empirical studies with practical applications; examinations of theoretical and methodological developments. The journal is committed to publishing the high quality articles from economics and management perspectives. It is a triannual journal published in April, August and December and all articles submitted are in English. IJEM follows a double-blind peer-review process, whereby authors do not know reviewers and vice versa. Peer review is fundamental to the scientific publication process and the dissemination of sound science.