Time series analysis for water resources management - application to observed and simulated time-series of the groundwater flow numerical model of the coastal plain of Cecina

Abstract

This paper highlights the potentiality of the time series decomposition applied to transient regime groundwater flow models, as water balance management tool. In particular, this work presents results obtained by applying statistical analysis to some observed time series and to time series derived from the groundwater flow model of the coastal plain of Cecina (Tuscany region, Italy), developed in transient regime within the period 2005-2017. The time series of rainfall, river stage and hydraulic heads were firstly analysed, and then time series decomposition was applied to the “accumulated net storage”, to finally discern and quantify two meaningful components of the groundwater budget, the regulatory reserve (Wr = 22 Mm3) and the seasonal resource (Wd = 2.5 Mm3). These values compared with withdrawal volumes (average of 6.4 Mm3/y within the period 2005-2017) allowed to highlight potentially critical balance conditions, especially in periods with repeated negative climatic trends. Operational monitoring and modeling as following corrective and planning actions for the groundwater resource are suggested.